The latest bombing in Riyadh

I've heard claims that al Qaeda had bad intelligence, or they wouldn't have attacked the compound they did. After all, there weren't any Americans there. I wish I were confident that this was a mistake.

It's no secret that Saudi controlled Arabia has internal problems, and some analysts have gone so far as to say it is unstable. We know that 'al Qaeda' is very popular in some parts of Arabia, and a crackdown by the royals might spark a civil war.

How does radical Wahhabi/al Qaeda benefit from a civil war in Arabia?

• They might win, of course, though that may be a long shot.
• They hurt the evil royals, who are on their enemies list. The price might seem a bit high for the rank-and-file, but the bigshots care more about their money pipelines--which I'd think would get pinched.
• A civil war anywhere in Arabia would have to impact the price, and probably supply, of oil from there. Saudi controlled Arabia being pivotal in oil price stability, we'd have to see prices shoot up around the world. And if there are significant interruptions, Western (read "Crusader") economies get hurt badly.

  And if Western powers bring armies in to Arabia to help protect the supplies, it ticks off hundreds of millions more Muslims. Up goes recruitment and influence for 'al Qaeda.'

Is it worth to 'al Qaeda' to lose some supporters in Arabia to hurt the evil Crusaders so badly? Probably. They don't get the satisfaction of killing the infidels themselves, but they do get to watch Europe's economy and influence tank, and maybe replace their Saudi support with even more popular support from around the world. Donald Sensing disagrees in this piece from 2 months ago, but his analysis is predicated on Osama's stated policies. I don't think Osama is still alive.

By the way, I write 'al Qaeda' in quotes to include affiliated groups, splinters, and name changes.