Karzai and Kremlinology

When I heard the report that Karzai had claimed that the US was in league with the Taliban to try to stay longer, the first thing I thought was "I wonder how that fits into his domestic politics?" I should have wondered if the reporters got the story right. I suppose, given the US reaction, that they did. For a change

I know very little of internal Afghan politics, but if I assume that Karzai isn't just running off at the mouth with random truth and nonsense, then this has something to do with restive political allies or opponents he is trying to out-maneuver.

The exercise at hand is how to figure out what's going on without knowing who or what are the powers at play--sort of like the old Kremlinologists trying to figure out the balance of power from the lineup on the reviewing stand at the May Day Parade.

It isn't exactly a surprise that a lot of Afghans would like the US gone, so accusing us of wanting to stay makes Karzai look like he's standing up against Goliath on behalf of the little guys; that should play well. But there are still quite a few Afghans who benefit from having the US and NGO's around--because we're doing good or because they're on the gravy train. Maybe they take the benefits for granted and also support having the US go, but more likely they're on the outs--unpopular with the rest of the Afghans--and Karzai is posturing against them.

The other accusation--that we're in league with the Taliban--suggests that maybe we've been making some concessions/promises to the Taliban that aren't very popular with the rest of the place.

Or I could be all wet: maybe Karzai's middle name is Biden.