I'm not sure how many variants of the tests there are--and I include procedural variants in that, because sometimes the procedures m
ake a difference. (CDC testing procedures)
- How many false positives are there in real-world usage?
- How many false negatives are there? How often ought we re-test to be confident that the person is indeed not infected?
- Can we reliable distinguish antibodies for this strain from others?
- Is there a reliable procedure for determining if someone is shedding the virus?
We expect the vast majority of the young who are infected to shake the illness easily. If, as with other corona viruses, those who recover have some immunity, then I think we want to try to assemble crews of the immune.
That means we want some accurate answers to those questions, as soon as we can get them.
UPDATE: " in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%"
UPDATE2: " 697 who tested positive a month ago, seven people have died on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 15 remain in critical condition, and 30 were once in critical condition but have improved". In other word, 1% die, and about 6.5% need intensive care. The deaths there were all over 70 with other conditions, but that's not the whole story.
UPDATE3: 23-Mar The first pass on an antibodies detection test
It appears there are false negatives, but false positives are rarer.
ReplyDeleteI believe the antibodies are well detected, in Singapore they are using it to confirm infection.
The virus sheds far more than SARS in the early stages, and that may be one reason its so widespread now.