I had thoughts about this 14 years ago, and I haven't heard anything to change my mind. The buried weapons may not be so accessible any longer, but they're easy to come by, especially if you make common cause with one of the regional terrorist groups. It wouldn't be wise, but politic calculations aren't famous for wisdom.
I think this is dangerous.
Your previous article astutely notices the difference with South Africa: there was no danger of the previous government staging a coup and returning to power. Part of the situation was now settled and stable. It could be poked and prodded and held to account. But what eventually happened even in South Africa, the good example, is instructive. Only one side was seriously held to account. When justice is brought against oppressors we rejoice. Is not any righting of wrongs a good thing? Apparently not. If there is not at least some reciprocity then the message very quickly becomes "revenge for any reason, even an imagined one, is allowed." This happened almost immediately in Liberia in 2010, more slowly in south Africa, but it seems to be inexorable.
ReplyDeleteAnd in South Africa I further foresee yellow stars within a generation--and I'm not talking astronomy.
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