Learning through trials?

Maybe not the best paradigm.

I'm a lousy photographer

My wife has a much better eye for composition. She's been trying to teach me the basics.

Beyond the basics: I like this man's take on the profession.

The new normal

Milk tastes slightly harsh--more so the less fat content it has.

BBQ meat tastes pretty much the same as before--slightly drier, perhaps. But BBQ sauces might just as well be ketchup; there's little taste to them.

Generic Cheerios are made differently than brand name ones. Ask me how I can tell. I'd read that generics were made by the same factories as the brand names, but perhaps not.

Fruits seem to have an aftertaste now (apples particularly). No, it isn't pesticides; we don't use any in our garden and the raspberries taste off too. Maybe I'm finally tasting the natural anti-bug flavors the plants use.

Diving

Is this the way to cure it in soccer?

Speaking of performative injuries, the intersection of South Baldwin and Williamson streets is blocked off by protestors who need space to "mourn." They've managed to get the last and penultimate Concerts on the Square canceled too. For "mourning."

Pillar

Revelation 3:12: "He who overcomes, I will make him a pillar in the temple of My God, and he will not go out from it anymore; and I will write on him the name of My God, and the name of the city of My God, the new Jerusalem, which comes down out of heaven from My God, and My new name."

The three-fold naming caught my attention this morning. Jesus refers to his "new name"--presumably new to us, since we just have the human name of Savior. He sometimes refers to God the Father as "my God". So what is the relationship of the name of the new Jerusalem to the other two names?

The presence of the Holy Spirit, maybe?

Fuzziness

The videos that were posted immediately after the shooting were taken as proof that the Madison policeman murdered the man 5 of them were trying to arrest.

Perhaps my eyes are just not what they used to be, but I can't tell exactly what went on. It doesn't help that a car moves across the field of view for part of the time.

Madison police do not wear body-cams(*)

Madison police have a reputation for being more community-sensitive and better trained than most. It could be true; I haven't had enough interactions with police here and there to have any basis of comparison.

I don't care to render a judgment myself; not right now. I do not see what the accusers profess to see. Nor do I see evidence of innocence. I see blurriness. And therefore I harbor deep suspicions of those who claimed perfect clarity from the very beginning of the reporting. It is possible for someone to have lied even when what he says eventually proves correct. Consider Joseph McCarthy.

And I wonder who is having AI generate video recreations of the incident right now.

(*) Former mayor Soglin, famously known as The Red Mayor, wrote this:

Why Madison Police do not have body cameras:

Prior to 2016, real reason: cost of storage of data

Since 2017: stated reason, "Invasion of a citizens privacy."

Since 2017, real reasons:

1. It increases the city's liability not having information a body camera provides.

2. The police want it, therefore we say, "No."

Ice cream flavor

The chef liked to experiment, and decided that he had a good mix with miso and caramel ice cream.

I lingered over the taste a while, trying to figure out what sort of cuisine and palate this would fit with.

Not German or Cajun or "American Midwest."

Interesting, but once is plenty.

I'll pass on making it myself, and on this recipe too.

In the night

One of the former leaders of our men's Bible study is in memory care, with hospice helping and not long left.

In the middle of the other night the nurses heard music from somewhere, and finally traced it down to his room, where he was singing hymns.

In a different kind of prison, one with bars of sickness and of failing mind, he was, like Paul and Silas, still singing.

Trying to fill in some gaps in my knowledge

The language is largely opaque to me, but I sort of get a hint of what he's talking about. Charles Cornell tries to explain what makes the motion in music.

My ear isn't tuned for this yet, but when he goes through it I can start to hear what's going on.

I get the impression that the categories of major and minor are a bit blurry at the edges.

Challenges

Among hackers porting the video game Doom to a new platform is a famous challenge. Pretty much anything with a computer in it has been hacked to run Doom--or so it seems. Even the Husqvarna Robotic lawnmower and the Honeywell Prestige thermostat...

This one is a doozy, though. The game, and also an IBM PC empulator to run it in, were implemented in Cascading Style Sheets, a software used for formatting web pages. The implementation isn't small, and is excruciatingly slow (estimated 1/10000 frames per second, after about 4 months to get the system booted and ready).

It isn't remotely useful, and although I can see the attraction of the challenge I would not have attempted it myself. I wouldn't try to climb Everest, either. That may be wisdom or laziness, or perhaps both.

Heightened risk

The body has some built-in cancer fighting capabilities. These have some fairly high probability of destroying mutant cells--though not 100 percent, so if your lifestyle exposes you to lots of mutagens something is more likely to get past the defenses. And presumably these defenses get weaker with aging and other bad habits. Once something gets past, ouch.

How likely is it that more than one type of cancer (not metastasis of the same!) develops?

Estimates: 1 in 20 within 6 months; 1 in 5 lifetime.

Time for a little back-of-the-enveloping.

For someone in the 70-74 range (averaging the sexes; men have higher rates), the population average for developing cancer is 2%: 1 in 50. That range includes 10 6-month periods, so estimate 0.2% chance per 6 month period, just from the normal incidences. The 1 in 20 cited above is 25 times bigger than normal.

Some of that may be due to the insults to the body from radiation or chemo, both as mutagens and as reducing the body's capacity to fight off mutants.

If I assume a 70-year-old, and if 13 years is the residual lifespan, and I use the same numbers as before, ignoring the rise in rate, then the expected lifetime risk is about .05, or 1 in 20. So having cancer increases the lifetime risk of a different cancer by about a factor of 4--better than the 25 above.

That seems consistent with a temporarily increased risk (e.g. chemo weakening the body) on top of a more generic increased risk.

Remember the rule: Where you see one problem, look for another.

Note to self

Do not plant raspberries and roses close (within about 20 feet) of each other.

Runners spread and removing stray raspberry canes from within the rose bush is tricky.

The contempt of the world

A nice turn of phrase: Eucherius lays the axe to the root of the tree, by shewing him the vanity, and the iniquity of riches and honours, the two grand inticements of popular spirits. And this he doth with such powerful and clear reasons, that to virtuous and peaceful minds he hath rendered them not only contemptible, but odious. Much more might have been spoken against them, but — seeing the age we live in hath made all his arguments demonstrations — he hath in my judgement spoken enough.

Lands without government

One of the reasons for recognizing nations is to have a single point of contact for coordinating things like war and peace, contract disputes, handing over (or not) alleged criminals for trials for crimes done elsewhere...

The whole point is to have that encapsulation--a single entity that manages the big picture relations between the people of different areas. It reduces complexity and confusion.

Without that, if you want to arrange for an end to armed conflict between your people and another "nation," you have to find representatives of all the groups and get each of them to agree to a cease-fire separately.

If you can deal with a single government, that government has the responsibility of enforcing the agreement on its internal groups.

But when there's no central authority for an area from which hostilities flow, what choices do you have?

Cut a deal with the groups that will deal, and accept that the rest will keep attacking you? That may not work if the holdouts have enough power to inflict serious harm.

Arrange for somebody else to conquer the holdouts, and then negotiate with you on their behalf--putting in a government you can deal with?

Invade the area yourself, and destroy the holdouts, and keep them suppressed? That might get the non-holdouts cheesed off at you too, and get you into a bigger problem.

Do punitive invasions where you tear into the holdouts and their temporary allies, and then leave? See above.

There are several places in the world where the nominal central government doesn't actually have effective control. One of them, insofar as control of military actions is concerned (and that probably extends into other fields as well), may well be Iran. That was their fall-back plan, anyway. I don't know who is talking to who about what, though I hope that secret (and no doubt face-saving) talks are underway about the uranium.

Interesting times

Gratitude

For the Fourth we went to the "biggest little parade" in Token Creek. They had about 17 "floats" and a street dance afterwards. The rain held off until the parade ended, but the dripped probably didn't damped spirits much. The Token Creek tradition is for water fights between the float riders and the spectators. And between spectators.

In the pre-game water fights, one family had equipped their youngsters with heart-shaped backpack water bladders connected to small squirters. I wish they'd had those when I was young. We made do with what few unbroken water pistols there were--the seams always cracked--and syringe bodies.

The littlest girl in the group—perhaps 5 years old—was short enough that she kept getting squirted in the face in the melee. She would wince, almost cry, grit her teeth, grin, and squirt back.

I took a brief hike down Portage to see the rest of the short parade route, find out how long were the food lines, and learn where the portajohns were. I saw nobody I knew, but I got more attention than I expected. After I rejoined the family I realized that I was pretty much the only man present with a button down shirt and long pants. Everybody else was dressed for a splash in the heat.

Before the parade began someone sang the Star Spangled Banner, of course, followed by a recording of "Proud to be an American."

I wondered, not for the first time, if that's the right framing. I'm proud of the ugly kludge bookcases I made so many decades ago. They fit the purpose and have for many family moves. They're something I did.

I'm grateful to be American. I'm grateful to be a man (and I trust my wife is grateful to be a woman). I'm proud to have helped in several experiments, and grateful for the chance. I'm grateful for our children.

As for the larger American project, I have not served in office or in the military, though I have done some teaching (and paid my taxes and looked for the least objectionable candidates and helped with a friend's unsuccessful campaign). I've tried to live and teach Christian values and the courtesies of the culture. I'm not sure those are enough to give me the right to be proud of my contribution. I suspect gratitude is safer for the soul.

The Fourth as seen by Neptunus

I wasn't introduced to his work until after he died. His meditations on the celebration.

Declaration of Independence, still applicable?

Today is the 250'th anniversary of one of the most important documents in the West.

Some of the text is timeless: "endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights" and so on. Those apply.

But there's more. I rarely pay attention to the list of facts "submitted to a candid world." Quite a few were specific to the occasion, and aren't so timeless.

How well does the recitation of injuries map into a modern situation?

Just for the fun of it, suppose we pick the PoV of citizens of random small EU country other than Belgium, and for George III read the EU establishment. And take the worst-case/worst-face for the local situation, whether it is completely justified or not. Are there parallels for the old complaints in the new situation?

• He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good. I don't know the details well enough to guess.
• He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. I don't know the details well enough to guess. There's no pool of land to draw from in Europe, so there's no exact parallel.
• He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only. I don't know the details well enough to guess.
• He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures. There are other ways of "fatiguing them into compliance;" e.g. lawsuits and judicial rulings.
• He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. Over-ridden, yes. Very much so.
• He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within. I don't know that details well enough to guess at what might be comparable to this.
• He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands. Just the opposite – importing large quantities of foreigners without regard for whether they integrate well into the existing society, and making the current citizens reponsible for their care.
• He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers. Over-riding local legislatures and judiciaries, certainly.
• He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. When agreement with the masters is a criteria for appointment...
• He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. I think we can all find examples there and here.
• He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. Not so much. Ignoring the necessity for a military, yes.
• He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power. Not so much. Which, given European history, is refreshing.
• He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation: This sounds very much like EU.
• For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: The current version would be quartering large bodies of foreigners among us.
• For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States: This seems to be a problem, if reports are to believed.
• For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: Not sure this applies. It might, but I don't know the regulatory details.
• For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent: The individual countries impose their own taxes. Regulations, though...
• For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury: The UK famously decided to remove this right from many cases.
• For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences "Transportation" isn't a current punishment, but "pretended offences" such as mean tweets seem to be treated like "careless speech" in wartime.
• For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies: I don't know of a parallel.
• For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments: As noted above, this seems parallel to EU
• For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever. Not strictly parallel; the individual legislatures exist.
• He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us. Maybe the no-go zones?
• He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people. No obvious parallel.
• He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation. For mercenaries put colonists and it might apply.
• He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands. No obvious parallel.
• He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. Not Indians exactly, no.
• In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. I don't know the details well enough to find a parallel to this.

With some revisions it might apply. But "mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed."

"Because they are"

Anecdotal Evidence again.

"without gratitude ... life will become an existential shopping spree that no product satisfies"

And the granddaughter and the steam engine -- I resemble that...

If I thought of this, so has someone else

How many shipping containers would 600 of this mix of drones fit in?

We've plenty of space in the country where you could buy land and build a barn to keep satellites from seeing anything out of the ordinary, well within range of air bases. Assembling enough people to manage the rapid unpacking and launches without having an informer in the group might be a problem, depending on the group doing the attacking.

Just destroying the aircraft on a few bases would be painfully expensive, though not crippling.

And there are plenty of infrastructure targets too, some fairly fragile. I gather there's redundancy for a lot of our capacity: if California is a bit messed up we've still got Texas and Louisiana. Still, oceans around us don't protect as well as they used to, unless we search everything coming in.

Overton Window

From anglican.ca: "Pastoral Liturgies at the Time of Death in Contexts of Medically Assisted Dying" Authorised for Trial Use, Evaluation and Feedback where permitted by the Ordinary by the Council of General Synod, June 2026

Many of the conversations around what constitutes a good death seek to enshrine dignity of the dying person as the highest value. Very often, the understanding of dignity is tied to one’s autonomy in agency – being able to think, act, and make decisions on one’s own. Human dignity, however, rests in our being created by a loving God. It is not something to be tied to a question of worth to be determined according to standards that place autonomy as the highest value of dignity. God has given us dignity and worth as part of who we are as God’s creatures. Our agency in health care decisions is, furthermore, something that we need to entrust to God in our discernment. We do not make decisions alone, but in the presence of God.

Some Anglicans have had profound experiences in which a death by MAiD has been accompanied by faithful prayer and strong pastoral care. Other Anglicans hold that MAiD does not offer any moral good, and may indeed be against God's wishes for humanity. Many of us share concerns about the potentials for abuse of the practice through coercion or in the fragilities of a health care system that is in crisis. All of us in Canada, especially clergy and other pastoral care ministers, are likely at some point in our ministries, to be met with a request for pastoral care and prayer by someone who has opted for a medically assisted death.

Our intention is to help the church’s ministers to respond pastorally to the needs before them. It is not our intent to enter into the ethical arguments regarding MAiD, nor to provide a moral argument for or against MAiD.(1)

... (1) The General Synod has produced several resources since the legalization of medically assisted dying. In Sure and Certain Hope, 2017, presented a pastoral response with some pastoral and prayer resources, upholding the duty of pastoral care, and also holding up some key theological principles of caution with respect to MAiD. Faith Seeking Understanding: Medical Assistance in Dying: Reflections by Canadian Anglicans, 2024, gathered up over forty reflections from theological, pastoral and ethical perspectives by Canadian Anglicans, representing a wide collection of experiences and positions on the ethics of MAiD.

Yikes. True, the intro says "Human dignity, ... is not something to be tied to a question of worth to be determined according to standards that place autonomy as the highest value of dignity." And the 2017 document is " holding up some key theological principles of caution with respect to MAiD". But the 2024 document is "representing a wide collection of experiences and positions." It sounds like they don't know how to say no and stick to it.

"To some following some Dioceses’ guidance or their own consciences, it will be important to walk the challenging path in choosing and adapting prayers in this resource that do not imply that the procedure, the medical assistance in dying itself, and the decision to employ MAiD, are not being given God’s blessing." I read that as meaning that they foresee priests sometimes giving a blessing to the procedure and the decision, or picking prayers that imply that (which seems dishonest if they don't). Perhaps they mis-spoke.

They consider the possibility of having "Confession and Absolution" as part of the liturgy.

At Lambeth in 1930 the Anglicans "affirmed the permissibility of birth control for married couples who felt a moral obligation to forgo both ‘parenthood’ and ‘complete abstinence’". Shortly after, many other denominations jumped on the bandwagon, and uncounted couples decided that they met the criteria, and the Overton window shifted.

I hope that isn't going to be the case here.

FWIW, a Liturgy on the Day of an Execution doesn't seem to quite fit.

Clickers

The wildlife refuge was demonstrating a couple of hawks, one of which wasn't entirely thrilled with being indoors out of her cage. But they'd been trained (injuries meant they'd never be released to the wild again), and she settled down. The trainer clicked a clicker on her belt when the bird calmed down.

Why a clicker?

I asked. Because different trainers had different voices. They wanted a consistent sound to indicate "Good job", and they settled on clickers.

The trainer still used words "Good bird," but that was probably for her and our benefit. The clicker was for the birds.

Repairs

This story showed up yesterday: "Psychology says fathers who fix broken things instead of replacing them are not being cheap: Why repairing objects becomes their way of protecting memories, purpose and family"

It talks about being useful, sense of purpose, protection, and so on.

What came to my mind immediately was that not just people and pets, but the things we bring into the family become our responsibility. It isn't just a matter of memories associated with that old clock. It's part of our lives now, and we owe a certain care to the things we own.

We tend to look down on people who don't care for their things, don't we?

Some of us even feel a little obligation to care for the commons too.

Log Jam

I had not heard of this before: a centuries-long log jam in the Red and Atchafalya rivers. That wikipedia article's history goes back to 2021 -- yes, I wondered if this was fake. "The removal of the massive log jams hastened the capture of the Mississippi River's waters in lower Louisiana by the Atchafalaya River,"

Curiosity from Genesis

In Israel's last declarations to his sons Simeon and Levi are condemned for their anger and violence and told that they will be dispersed, albeit in the family. And the Simeon tribe seems not to have had a clear territory separable from that of Judah. The Levite tribe was, of course, scattered through the whole of Israel.

I don't see "founder effect" -- the subsequent trajectories of the two tribes was quite different despite Israel's joint curse. But it's a curious note.

Lessons for newcomers

What would you want to insist that prospective immigrants to your country learn?

An obvious first choice is "the language." We don't have an official language, though we should. If you are to be part of the society and not in an isolated huddle, you need to speak English.

Another obvious body of knowledge is the history and general culture, and the basics of how the economy and government work, and what is expected of citizens--and what is expected of guests. Immigrants who learn these things from American movies are in for surprises.

Our local cultures do not all assume the same courtesies, but we should try to assemble a set, with explanations ("How are you?" is not requesting your medical history, give up your bus seat to someone infirm, etc). Now that I think of it, quite a few of our citizens never learned some of these...

How to arrange this is another problem. But for the moment just think about what you want an immigrant to know (and practice as needed) to be able to fit in.

Instructions on how to thrive (e.g. ignore the ubiquitous advertisements and save your money) may overlap with this curriculum somewhat.

A student coming for college will probably be associating with an unrepresentative group of people, and not see or understand what happens in the background to provide his education. Best be explicit upfront about what is acceptable and what is not.

I suspect that I'd get very different answers to this from painters at the union hall and from the HR staff at Target.

Niche dominations

An interesting exploration of ethnic domination of niche economic sectors, or, how to develop a jati.

How do some ethnicities wind up taking over (e.g.) hotel management? Aporia discusses the hows and the side effects--not all of them are benign. One is that a number of low-status jobs are no longer available as entry level jobs to youth of other ethnicities--nail salon employment is nearly locked down in LA.

Saving face

One point I didn't make in my thoughts on negotiations with Iran was that if the IRGC was going to save face, we would have to lose face.

Ask a Grandpa

Possible youth group addition: A table for private questions.

Linen armor

Oldest Daughter spotted these attempts to solve an old mystery: how was linen armor made and made useful?

Unraveling the linothorax mystery or how linen armor came to dominate our lives. A short summary. "The only way we were ultimately able to cut the laminated linen slab was with an electric saw equipped with a blade for cutting metal. At least this confirmed our suspicion that linen armor would have been extremely tough. We also found out that linen stiffened with rabbit glue strikes dogs as in irresistibly tasty rabbit-flavored chew toy, and that our Labrador retriever should not be left alone with our research project."

linothorax for sale Authentic? Who knows. Do you make it with layers of linen boiled with salt to harden it, or glued together into a hard lump?

More linothorax at UW Green Bay. Yes, he was wearing the armor when they shot the arrow at it. A video of the same: linothorax .

A linothorax won't stop "a determined spear thrust", but does pretty well at shedding arrows.

Thank you! I don't think I'll be trying my hand at it, but ...

Academic honors

360 high school graduates.

• 40: cum laude
• 26: magna cum laude
• 76: summa cum laude
• 17: 4.0 average

You expect the distribution to have a diminishing tail to the right, don't you?

The obvious explanation is that there's a bit of gaming going on: that the cutoffs are based on GPA and not relative difficulty of the courses involved. I'd weight a B in chemistry or French III more highly than an A in PE. Perhaps I'm biased--I did horribly in PE. If you're already doing "well enough" selecting an "easy A" course would help push the average up, maybe to the next category. That wouldn't work unless there was already a bit of grade inflation, and 44% getting honors seems a trifle inflated.

I got a little grumpy with the student speeches. They were way too "change the world" You know, there are billions of other people with different ideas about that: it makes for a lot of pushback, "follow your heart," A famous shortcut to disaster, etc -- though the last one emphasized that the world wasn't friendly and you needed adaptability and willingness to get up after disasters. Bravo!

Quibbles to the contrary, the graduation went well. The graduate seemed a trifle overwhelmed, and expressed a preference for low key celebration: pizza and games at home instead of a restaurant.

Planning

Do managers ever rubber duck their proposals? (with someone who does not report to them, of course). Also see rule 12. You can think of business or government decisions with unhappy side effects that should have been forseeable.

Odd

The book is nominally to be released on 18-June, though word is that Amazon started shipping already.

But "SuperBookDeals" claims to have it available already, second hand. I assume they won't ship until they actually get a second-hand copy, and thus delivery might take a while, but that's a curious business model. "81% positive over the past 12 months"

Shattered Sword was Parshall's book on Midway.

Bohemian Rhapsody

The East and West mixed choir sang this, as arranged by Philip Lawson. I can see why they left out the part about Why the "poor boy from a poor family" was in such trouble -- singing about random murders is maybe not what you want impressionable youth doing -- but it changes the tone quite a bit. This way the singer seems almost justified in his complaints.

Libraries

Thanks to Anecdotal Evidence, a description of our living room: To Read. So many books, so little time...

Formation

Evangelical colleges have not been on my radar--never really were, since I wasn't planning to study liberal arts. The link explains why they're in trouble: partly demographic change, partly cultural changes (can I get a good job?), and partly heads in the sand.

What's the purpose of them? Liberal arts education and Christian formation, apparently--seminaries seem to be the place to go for specifically church-related credentials like MDiv (*) and MRE.

If the evangelical college is like a secular college but with Christian focus and an effort at formation, then how can this be accomplished more flexibly and cheaply?

Online study is popular, though zoom is an inferior substitute for in-person discussion. One obvious problem is supplying the "Christian formation" part. If the college partners with the home churches, perhaps the local church could implement formation plans. Of course you might ask: "Aren't the churches supposed to be doing that for everybody?"

Well, yes. But I notice that the church doesn't keep close tabs on who "attends chapel," and doing that might cause problems. Unless, of course, the person volunteers for closer supervision and regular meetings with his spiritual advisor.

Even with that voluntary aspect there's still the risk of developing a two-tier church with "ordinary" and "more holy" groups. Which would be very very bad.

There's interest in programs for spiritual formation. Naturally, they will only be as effective as you let the Holy Spirit be. And there's a lot of fuzziness in definitions. I just looked up one (EFCA) program that read like a course description instead of a relationship.

I clearly have quite a bit of reading-up to do. And I should collar one of the pastors and ask some questions.

(*) Master of Divinity -- among all the weird names for a degree, this stands out.

Wisdom of teenagers

Fledgling robins fly about the garden, hoping to still be fed. Or something. Two stood on the far side of one of the garden fence panels, giving the mulched garden the side-eye. Then one tried to hop in as though the chickenwire wasn't there.

Then it tried again. And again. And its nestmate tried too. Three times. Finally both wandered off. As far as I can tell, they didn't try to fly in that day. Not that there was much to dig for in the wood-chips.

Honeyberry

aka haskap, grows nicely here. We've had some in the front yard for several years now. I've only eaten about 3 or 4 of the berries, though.

The way that you know that the berries are ripe is to look at the bush. If the robins are busily eating all the berries, they're ripe.

FWIW, we also planted strawberries in a 4x4 raised bed. They never produced much, so we yanked them out and planted flowers and fennel (don't do that) and whatnot. However we missed a few runners, and the strawberries spread, escaping the baleful shade of the coneflowers and forming a perimeter about the central garden, that actually produces strawberries. We usually get a few (mice get more), which is fine for a no-maintenance/no-expectation plant.

It took about 25 years for the grapevine to start producing significant quantities, and by then all the kids were grown, but grandkids learned how to harvest them anyway. We squeeze a lot of plants in a tiny city lot. You can't feed a crowd off them, but that wasn't the point.

Doxology

I've sung it thousands of times, but had never heard about Thomas Ken before. Maybe he would have liked it that way.

All Praise to Thee My God This Night has as the last verse: "Praise God, from whom all blessings flow" -- the famous doxology.

Ken sounds like he would have been a good man to know.

Wikipedia claims that he wound up crossways with Gilbert Burnet, of whom I had also never heard before, and of whom it was said "Indeed it was not easy to wound Burnet's feelings. His self-complacency, his animal spirits, and his want of tact, were such that, though he frequently gave offence, he never took it." I think I've known a few like that.

Negotiations

I commented back in March that the IRGC in Iran was probably going to be in the final state in Iran unless we were willing to go all out with boots on the ground (or the big bombs, I suppose).

I didn't think about what shape agreements would take. The Strait open goes without saying. The question is what about the uranium?

I don't see the IRGC being willing to publicly give it up. Supposing a faction had the power to do so, offering to would be an invitation for another faction to denounce and attack them, grabbing their territory and control of the uranium.

So face-saving would be built into the agreement. They'd agree to something lesser that in practice (and in secret) amounts to giving it up.

Except for weaseling. They would fake the records ("A GBU-57 ate my homework") and offer up half the uranium.

We'd have to rely a lot on intel, and by this time I'm not sure how many useful assets remain.

And, of course, nobody will explain what's really going on, leaving lots of room for nasty politicking.

Waiting Room

A short story on Substack

Smile

I'm not immersed in music lore, and didn't recall having heard of the never-quite-converged "SMiLE" Beach Boys album. I gather that at least some of the peices existed in multiple versions, and the group hadn't decided on what to pick.

I was curious. It exists on Youtube.

It feels sloppy, and I can easily believe they didn't yet know where they were going. Good Vibrations ends the set--the contrast seems stark. They experimented with all kinds of instrumentation and musical ideas, but it didn't seem confident and ready to me.

Sometimes you need to respect an author's privacy about "unfinished works." There's likely a reason the thing wasn't finished.

Quiet

Where can we go for quiet?

A walk in the woods sometimes qualifies, but it isn't always convenient, especially in winter.

I use quiet for prayer and writing and just being silent sometimes. (Walking is lousy for writing.) Other people live here as well as I, and they listen to music or podcasts or talk on the phone (or sometimes want to talk to me, which is fine, but not quiet).

When I need silence, I find that headphones and instrumental music to overcome other people's music/noise is almost as good. Half the time. If I need to be doing something rather than resting the mind, it isn't good enough. (Do I need to say that any music at all is bad when trying to write poetry?)

When you have little kids, silence is more of a late-night thing, and you're tired and sleepy then.

Early in the morning? Perhaps. There are tradeoffs.

Banquets

I find banquets frustrating. The level of ambient noise from distant conversation makes conversing with anybody but the person next to you difficult, and almost everybody is quite some distance away. You catch a fragment of a conversation that sounds interesting, but too far away to join in.

Can you work out a seating arrangement for a banquet in Heaven?

If we weren't limited to 4 dimensions... How about a "Hilbert table" with as many dimensions as guests, everybody sitting next to Jesus and kitty-corner with every other guest?

Bookstore Angel

See Anecdotal Evidence today.

Who matters

Chesterton's The Donkey is a fun short poem.

And we're that donkey too, aren't we? Not who we are, but Who we bring with us matters.

Obedience

Obedience teaches. Some things you may have words for, but don't undestand what they mean until you've lived them. I understood the demographic preference for monogamy over polygamy (and I certainly didn't have anybody else in mind), but after years of marriage I'm starting to understand what "one flesh" means and why more wives would be less.

Kids are in no position to decide what's best. "Just learn your times-tables; you'll understand later." We didn't go the "unschooling" route--we knew better than the kids what would be useful in understanding the world. Once they had obeyed and learned the background they could dig into what they pleased.

Sometimes we learn from bad choices, but I know a few adults who double-down on willfulness.

Automated Synthesis

The phrase Artificial Intelligence isn't appropriate. Slapping the word "intelligence" into the name doesn't make it real, and the result is misleading. This morning one of the men in our prayer gathering complained that the CEO, and a number of the new hires, were putting undue faith in the computer's analysis, and ignoring experience.

Since what the systems do is a more like a probabilistic synthesis of existing material, "Synthesis" seems like a better word than "Intelligence." That term emphasizes the aspect of compilation of existing material, instead of the implied "thinking about" that isn't actually happening.

In place of the term "AI", I propose that we use "AS": Automated Synthesis. Given the systems' notorious propensity for hallucination, one might call it "SS" -- Stochastic Synthesis -- but I gather some systems are getting better.

Maybe with a more accurate label people will be less tempted to put inappropriate trust in the systems, and recognize and use them for what they are. Rectification of names?

Ghost melody

Can you make out the original tune by subtracting notes from a background?

Can you make out any kind of melodic movement at all?

In trying to answer that question I hit two obstacles: I couldn’t hit the notes I needed to reliably, and I already knew what to expect.

To deal with the competence problem I used MuseScore software to compose and play back for me, and as for the bias due to expectation—I can’t solve that for myself unless/until I script something to take a random tune and generate the silhouette tune automatically, but I can solve it for you by obfuscating the title of the tune.

I chose to use as a “background” the collection of all the notes used in a tune. For each note in the original tune I played this background without that original note. I thought of it as like a ghost in the background noise.

Does that ghost, that absence, make something melodic?

Youtube video of Gjvaxyr (I am still learning ffmpeg. Please forgive the video quality. The audio was assembled with Audacity.)

Those who have some musical background will predict that the result will be dissonant, and so it is.

I think I can sort-of hear something, that is vaguely like the original—sometimes.

Later I’ll look into removing chords rather than single notes, though I expect it will still be dissonant.

I wonder under what conditions would the ghost tune not be dissonant. A base song with notes only from a chord, yes--others?

UFO data

I have not looked at the UFO data released the other day.

I assume that there's nothing security-related in there--which implies that whatever we're working on lately won't show up. (I hope we're working on some new secret technology...)

Some claim that UFO reports are the modern parallel to ancient visions of angels, demons, or gods. Um. I don't know how to compare rates of "strange observations" between not-always-literate times and now. Maybe people have always seen unusual things in the skies and attributed it to whatever the zeitgeist suggested. It's a plausible hypothesis, but I wouldn't care to try to prove it. I suspect that a large fraction of the UFO reports are due to artifacts of modern life, including secret military tests and glitches in our detecting/displaying systems.

Let's suppose after accounting for glitches and private drones and secret project, that there is a residue.

That could be due to natural but not understood or expected phenomena. In this case the rapid changes in direction and whatnot are "real" but not quite what they look like--sort of like the spider on the telescope looking like a monster. Once we figure out the mechanisms, we'll understand them going forward, though probably never be able to retroactively determine what somebody long ago saw.

They could be displays by supernatural creatures: ghosts, angels, demons, or other things not in our catalog. I'm assured that angels and demons exist, I'm agnostic about ghosts (lots of testimony but little that's clear to me), and I can't say much about "unknown."

Or they could be displays by "non-supernatural" creatures, i.e. like us (even though we're arguably supernatural also). Aliens, natives we haven't met -- whatever. If they're from elsewhere, how in the world did they get here? The structure of spacetime restricts how fast you can get around, and astronomical distances translate to astronomical times. If they're from around here, why haven't we run into them? We've been looking hard enough.

Bottom line: not much I can say about "unknown."

Do I think there are aliens out there?

Yes. I look around our planet and see life everywhere, even in hot springs, deep underground, and around hot vents at the bottom of the ocean. From this I take a guess about the nature of God: He's very creative and He likes life. From that I predict that there will be plenty of life in the universe, though not necessarily things we would recognize: different chemistry and ways of using energy, living much faster or much slower, other things I haven't imagined. That's not even including angels and whatnot, whose relationship with our physical universe isn't at all obvious to me.

As Lewis pointed out, just the existence of other intelligent creatures doesn't say anything one way or another about the relationship of God and man, or even man and the other creatures. We'd have to know a lot more.

I don't expect to learn anything from the documents.

For the history buff

A virtual walk-through of 4'th century Rome: most of the city model along the road is there. I've never been to either modern or ancient Rome, and the reconstructions are fun--and leave you wondering what living with such monumental reminders of history would be like.

It's missing a little something, though...

Damaged taste buds

From an article on recovery of radiation-damaged taste: "All the five taste types are seen to decline around the fifth week after the start of RT. Bitter and salty tastes are affected the most while the sweet taste is the least affected."

Recovery of taste function may occur as early as 4 to 5 weeks after the completion of RT. Complete recovery of taste function following RT is still not quantified or reported. Whether the damage caused to the taste buds is temporary or permanent is still unclear. Partial taste loss is seen to be prevalent even 20 years after completion of RT.

This was an overview of studies, which varied a great deal in methods and selection and radiation targets, and only the most general information is obtained.

I've another data point, though. I could appreciate sourdough fairly soon after treatment, and bitter seems to have gone into overdrive. And nobody will be hiring me for wine-tasting in the foreseeable future. After nearly a year, recovery seems to have plateaued. "This is what things taste like now."

FWIW, I lost about 25 pounds, but was slightly above optimum weight so I had some slack available, and am only a little below my original weight now. There's more to taste than just the tongue's part. The nose plays a role, as does the "mouthfeel," and though I couldn't taste sweet for a while I could still feel the effect of sugar. I'm not sure how, exactly, but I could.

Teaching how to cheat

Musing on an irrelevant news bit reminded me of John Scarne the magician who the Army hired to teach soldiers how to spot cheating.

They figured that the risks of soldiers learning how to cheat were outweighed by the benefit of soldiers learning how to recognize cheating. This is something he did for the Navy.

Children

Althouse has a post on people not having children, and a lot of the talk is about economics and technology and social propaganda.

What I thought of was Chesterton and "The fascination of children lies in this: that with each of them all things are remade, and the universe is put again upon its trial."

The world is rediscovered every day.

Which super-power?

AVI remembered an old question: what would be the best superpower?

I suppose that depends on a balance of your fears, your dreams, your work, and your amusements – and your calling, if any.

Invulnerability, for example: It would be nice not to have to worry about falling or getting hurt in a fight, but it would also be very handy for a vulcanologist, or just somebody with 'satiable curtiosity. It's also handy if your calling is crime-fighting with emphasis on the literal fighting.

In college the topic came up with a small group of guys and one guy volunteered that his preference would be the "time stop" or whatever he called it because – OK, I tried to argue him out of it and never really dealt with him afterwards. Creepy.

Super-speed could be handy sometimes, but most of the time what use would it be? Skipping the commute is all well and good, but then you're at work.

Teleportation to anywhere would be wild, if you could afford the spacesuits to go with it. Even restricted to just teleporting on Earth would be handy – sometimes. Especially if your work involved acquiring portable and valuable property...

Talking to animals – might get boring, though zoos would probably love you. Super-hearing, super-vision – you'd be in great demand by researchers. Changing an object's relative momentum by arbitrary amounts just by touching it – a bit niche, but wonderful for some jobs, and lots of recreational fun taking pebbles and firing them at a cliff to chip out an image in the rock.

If mind-reading is a superpower – so long as you're not born with it; that could get really rough on a baby – if you could turn it off when you didn't want to be bothered it could be very handy. If you couldn't, given what flits through people's minds, that power could be very depressing.

Super-persuasion? I'm not sure I'd trust very many people with that. Maybe not even me.

Superfast reading could get me caught up on a backlog...

AI in command

When I first heard about the story of PocketOS having its production database and backups deleted by an Anthropic AI I thought back to the Anthropic dispute with the Department of War claiming the DoW was using its products for military purposes. They thought that unsafe, and probably had other objections too. It would seem a 'shoot yourself in the foot' kind of demonstration, but human dumbness is pretty extensive.

It looks like somebody at PocketOS needs to be booted far. Their architecture was weird: the backups were on the same volume as the production database (????), everything was on the cloud with no local copy, the designer gave unfiltered control to the AI agent -- lots of dumbness. But the AI's "confession" seemed really weird. If the agent had rules, how did it ignore them? There's something odd here.

FWIW, we had databases too, some more mission critical than others. Depending on the "brand" of database (mysql/mariadb or postgres or mongodb or sqlite) we had different backup approaches, but the copy was always done by entirely different agents, and copies kept in different servers in different buildings. I can't think of a way anything but deliberate admin action on different machines that could damage both. The whole point of backup is to keep the data somewhere safely distant from problems on the original host. Ideally you'd like a copy that only a different admin can delete, just in case somebody goes postal.

It turns out the cloud provider here was able to provide a way to access the data after all, but that's not usually the case.

UPDATE: Not reading the documentation compounded with sloppy security compounded with trusting the AI

Out of touch

We bought a replacement car, which came with a trial of Sirius. I am getting fliers and emails urging me to sign up for the low (or "current") price and suggesting channels to entice me. What does? Talk radio--hardly. Sports--no. "Every music genre" that didn't list the only channel I'd be interested in. "Nonstop news" sounds like Babel torture. "So much comedy"--not a diet of it, thank you, and most of the modern comedian shorts youtube offers up are more bitter than funny.

My wife was on the phone with someone talking about a child interested in manga. I looked it up. I'd heard of Isekai--I'd written something that might be classed as "portal fiction" (though not Isekai)--but most of the classifications were new to me. I'd have to spend quite a while at the library reading through stuff to get up to speed, and even then I don't know if the library carries some of the more "adult" stuff. It might--libraries have been getting a little odd lately.

Maybe a movie a year at the theaters, no broadcast TV, no cable TV... The HBO/Netflix/etc produced content I haven't seen at all. Young adult conversations are replete with references to catch phrases from shows I've barely heard of. I'm told the caliber of the work is better than the old 60's/70's TV shows (which I'm not interested in rewatching). OK.

The book of Daniel says the Babylonians trained their most promising captives in the language and literature of the Babylonians--presumably because the way the language is used references the literature for additional meanings. How far out of touch can I be before communication becomes difficult?

Some words have already changed meanings.

Won or not done?

Althouse wrote: "The war is over. We won. Iran just won't admit it,"

I'm not sure that's true. I think we won the first phase (taking more hurt than we admitted but yes, winning), and now we're in the second phase--the seige. Remember seiges? We remember WWII as mostly kinetic, but in the Pacific we did some island hopping too; isolating Japanese outposts and waiting for them to wilt.

I assume that the mosaic land defense the Iranians planned was paralleled by a "mosaic" coastal capability as well, and that eradicating all their hidden coves and attack boats will take a while. No simple "decapitation" here. And some of those attack boats/mine layers will be genuine fishing boats, slightly repurposed.

Another one

Curious. The would-be assassin went to CalTech for his undergrad (I didn't get in), but for grad school went to Cal State Dominguez Hills, which has high rankings for "Hispanic enrollment" and "social mobility" but which I have never heard of before. I gather he worked on engineering a wheelchair brake, but so far haven't found any reliable details. Changing majors between degrees makes sense--sometimes you don't know how it really is to work in a field until you try it for real. But it seems a bit odd to jump from "world-class" to "never heard of it before."

From a screenshot of LinkedIn: "Mechanical Engineer, IJK Controls, "Reworked existing two-axis gimbal design to fit specifications of new project by redesigning..."

Maybe a mechanical engineer can tell how much skill that requires. I have no idea.

In case you were wondering about drones

People are learning how to use and counter drones in battle. By now it's common knowledge that a truck is a drone (followed swiftly by artillary) magnet. This is for the foot soldier, though some is relevant for civilians caught in the middle.

---

My suspicion is that the vast open areas in the USA make us more vulnerable to drone attacks and assassinations than more congested countries, once an adversary manages to smuggle inventory in.

You would think

that having to lie abed sick would give you more time to read. Turns out you need energy to concentrate, and eyestrain is a problem.

After Saturday comes Sunday

Is there a Muslim group that denounces the Little Satan that does not also hate the Great Satan?

It seems that it has been this way all my life.

Observation

Watch people walk by, immersing themselves in too-often vicious social media, inattentive to all but their mo' bile devices.

Artemis

Some people are excited about the Artemis mission, and others are pretty grumpy about it. Moon shots have been done before, of course, and the thrill isn't going to be the same. I remember the original well.

The same reasons for not doing it at all circulate again: Benefits are speculative, We've got great needs (wars, the poor, etc) that all need dealing with and this is a mere distraction, and so on. There's a new reason too: Why not use robots for exploration since they work so well now.

Of course the benefits of using low earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit are not speculative at all anymore, but we have a better handle on what we can find on the Moon and Mars and a better appreciation for how hard work there will be.

The "How can we spend money on this when we have so many poor/etc" sounds very noble-minded, but that argument has no boundaries or limits. Why did Beethoven waste his time composing music when he could have been agitating for peace and trying to relieve poverty?

No. There are things worth doing, things that make life better, that have nothing to do with the usual list of desperate needs. I judge exploration (physical and scientific research) to be among those, along with arts. "We can put a man on the Moon but we can't fix homelessness." Well, we can carve a Pieta but we can't cure drug addiction--and probably never will. I don't believe the societal-problem advocates should have an automatic veto on the work of the rest of us.

The question comes down to balance. You can overdo anything. And there are several kind of costs to consider: money of course, but enthusiasm and good will too. Thanks to the intervening years of development some effects can be had for much less (in constant dollars) than they could for the Apollo program. Enthusiasm seems harder to come by, for pretty much anything. A certain decadence set in in society, and NASA turned rather sclerotic. Private rockets pack a lot more enthusiasm now.

If you argue that the Artemis program lacks vision--that we're just doing what our ancestors did, just a little bigger; a little larger pyramid this time--I admit there's justice to the argument.

If you complain that it's inefficient to try to loft people instead of robots--granted.

If you complain that the Constitution doesn't mandate research spending like this--well, it doesn't mandate poverty spending either. And several decades of the latter have shown some stubborn problems with poverty elimination and a moral hazard or two as well--the programs are not an unmitigated good.

You could argue that private firms should take up the torch of space travel. I like the idea, though we have a tragedy of the commons problem already.

Where should the balance be--this year? I don't know. Existential problems, such as war or overwhelming debt, may demand cuts to the bone and beyond. We don't have a good track record of facing up to problems and making hard decisions either.

Nor do I know on what scales you weigh conflicting desires: smaller classes or more to teach about?

I do know that if I had funding authority, I'd want to keep trying to explore.

Webcam and zoom

(Logitech C615, ubuntu 22.04.5, gnome/wayland) Under cheese the resolution looks quite decent, but under zoom it's fuzzy, as though it doesn't want to focus. It turns out that changing the resolution can't be done from a zoom desktop, but only through logging into the web interface to the account.

Even with that, autofocus is painfully slow.

Speeds

When I learned to type we measured speed in words per minute. Did Incan scribes measure their quipu speed in knots?

Judas

We get some detail about Judas, but not a huge amount. The story isn't mainly about him anyway.

He was a thief, and helped himself to what was in the moneybag. How did John know? Matthew, a tax collector, might have spotted small discrepancies easily enough, and told Jesus, and John, close to Jesus, heard of it. Was Judas afraid of exposure, unwilling to repent?

I've read it proposed that Judas, knowing Jesus' power, wanted Him to quit dilly-dallying and use that power and popularity, and so tried to force Jesus' hand. It didn't work the way Judas hoped, hence his despairing not-quite-repentance. It's quite plausible, but not supported by the texts.

Or perhaps he was jaded with miracles. Many others saw the same miracles and merely got angrier with Jesus, and not at all interested in following Him. Jesus had said some things that would be really hard for a good Jew to listen to ("eat my flesh"), and maybe Judas was wondering if Jesus was really good. We're told that the disciples, when on mission, were also doing miracles--perhaps Judas did some miraculous healings too. People are really good at forgetting inconvenient things, but that would be a doozy to try to forget.

Or perhaps he was sloppy and the devil slowly took hold of him.

Or perhaps his motives were a mix of all of the above.

I heard it asked if Judas had a choice; if the prophecy meant that somebody had to betray Christ. I think that's a bit backwards. If Judas had chosen otherwise, the prophets would have been told something else to say.

It's been claimed that Peter is Everyman, standing in for us all, denying Christ through fear and surprise. But so is Judas, betraying Christ and perhaps not entirely sure why. And so is Thomas, doubting the testimony. And so is John, loved by Christ.

Speedy trials

A mysterious death. After a gold miner was found dead, "tensions escalated when during the procession into town, residents claimed that, in line with traditional practices, the corpse allegedly identified Thomas Cooper as responsible for Morris’ death."

That would certainly explain the mob that tried to kill Thomas earlier.

Following the incident, Thomas Cooper reportedly confessed, alleging that Morris was killed through traditional means. He claimed that food and alcohol consumed at the gold mining site were poisoned through witchcraft. He also alleged that others were involved but has not disclosed their identities.

Authorities say investigations into the matter are ongoing.

There's a picture of a partly destroyed house that Thomas was hiding in. I rarely saw palm-branch roofs--they weren't legal. Crowded villages tended to have one house set the rest on fire, so corrugated metal or asbestos roofing was mandated.

I wonder when during the various proceedings the confession happened. I'd bet it was before the authorities rescued him.

Naval engineer's prayer

Drachinifel says this was a real plea by midget submarine engineers.

Grafting

Discussing Romans 11 this morning we noticed how Paul uses the reverse of normal grafting to emphasize that his Gentile audience shouldn't get swelled heads: grafting wild grapes onto a cultivated vine.

Grafting is weird -- who thought of it? How could you guess you weren't going to just kill the scion?

People started doing it somewhere between the Middle East and China, and it slowly spread from those places. Apparently more observant people noticed naturally occurring "inosculation" where branches or roots grow together on contact. I've not seen this with branches, but I have with tree roots -- I just never made the connection. Somebody did, played around with the process, and came up with other possibilities.

Lots of other possibilities.

Bus numbers

Back before Covid, before the bus reorganizations but after they first started running them to this town, I'd drive to or be dropped off at the bus stop and ride downtown. I never saw more than 15 people on the (rush hour only service) buses, and usually about half that. I liked the convenience--I could use my time much more usefully than I could driving--but wondered just how heavily the town was subsidizing the ride.

The city then expanded bus service, including an in-town only route, which I have used twice. Once again, I wondered: how much was that subsidized?

Budget shortfalls are bringing a lot into public view. Last year Metro Bus+Paratransit had 113,951 riders on this town's lines. Counting weekends as a single day, that comes to about 9 riders per bus run. That's more than I expected, based on what I see through the windows, but OK. To be clear, there are two circulator lines, and one which links to Madison downtown. I just assumed everybody rode the circulator.

The contract with Metro this year is for 2.04 million. That's about 18 dollars per ride, all lines included. Fares were about 2 bucks (and there is some state aid, but that doesn't reduce the cost per ride, just changes who pays), so the city itself subsidizes 600,000 -- a bit over 5 bucks a ride.

Madison Metro got itself a reputation for exploitive contracts with the suburbs, but 18 dollars a ride? You'd have to put 2 people on every seat to make 2 dollar fares alone pay for the contract.

For the in-city short hops, a taxi costs less than the real price for the bus ride. I wasn't expecting that.

Voodoo lily

One of our daughters gave us a few bulbs. Last year they grew in a pot on the deck, and provided an exotic complement to the other flowers there.

This year one of the bulbs started sprouting early after the winter-over, so my wife potted it and set it up in the kitchen window. (We don't get a lot of direct sunlight in the house.)

It grew nicely, and started to flower.

I spent some time emptying cabinets trying to find the dead mouse until I realized where the smell was actually coming from. Turns out the voodoo lily is related to the infamous titan arum.

It is now in the garage with a plastic bag over it to keep it warm. When it is done blossoming it can come back inside, or if the weather warms up return to the deck...

Science and art

Patrick Kurp posted some thoughts on science writing and literature. He quotes Chappell: "Poetry celebrates visual appearance while disciplines like chemistry and particle physics plunge below appearance into a universe often impossible to visualize, a void punctuated by brief pulses and intermittent bleeps of electromagnetic energy. There is, besides, the dread problem of accuracy:"

One could quote Dirac on learning that Oppenheimer wrote poetry:

I do not see how a man can work on the frontiers of physics and write poetry at the same time. They are in opposition. In science you want to say something that nobody knew before, in words which everyone can understand. In poetry you are bound to say ... something that everyone knows already in words that nobody can understand.

That's probably not being entirely fair to Oppenheimer, though it may depend on which poems Dirac was thinking of. (I don't think my wife would be thrilled to receive such an Epithalamion.)

But in the general case Dirac was wrong, the poetic ideal is to be understood.

"True Wit is Nature to advantage dress'd
What oft was thought, but ne'er so well express'd;
Something whose truth convinced at sight we find,
That gives us back the image of our mind."

True, in the sciences and in math precision is vital—a statement should mean one thing only, while in poetry a phrase can stand for or allude to many things—preferably compactly, memorably, beautifully, and rhythmically. "In size, a node; in swing, more anti."

Dirac was convinced of the importance of beauty in physics, that the clumsy expression of the details of reality could be underpinned by simple and beautiful equations.

The language will be unfamiliar to many, but surely this is also a kind of poetry too.

(And it's better poetry than when we try our hands at more traditional versions.)

Quasi-war

Perhaps my history books covering the era were defective, or my memory is, but somehow I missed the US quasi-war with France. Stuff like the XYZ affair got overshadowed by the War of 1812, I guess.

France had loaned us money for the Revolutionary War. In 1793 we found it inexpedient to keep paying (Louis was dead, and we were having trouble with the Brits), and the French Directorate got a bit upset with us and let loose privateers to seize ships. With customary brilliance Congress had sold off the last warships.

The Brits had us over a barrel--they had a bigger navy and were at war with France (and seizing some of our ships trading with France too) -- and the resulting Jay treaty left us nominally sort-of anti-French (not popularly, though).

We wound up losing about 2000 merchant ships by the time things wound down.

No declaration of war (the Supreme Court said that was OK) -- that set a bit of precedent. It made sense not to go all out; all we wanted to do was shoot up their corsairs until they quit bothering us. And get reimbursed for our loses, which didn't happen.

"that is"

A verse caught my eye this morning: Revelation 13:6. The part that looked interesting was "to blaspheme His name and His tabernacle, that is, those who dwell(*) in heaven." (*) Or "who tabernacle" (as a verb). The "that is" isn't in the text, but is inferred from the grammar--in the Vaticanus/Sinaiticus versions. The KJV used a different Greek text that has an and there.

It's a trivial difference, and both readings make sense and neither changes anything about the thrust of the passage.

But the image of "those who dwell in heaven" is different between the two. With the "that is, those who dwell in heaven" reading, all those in heaven have the Spirit of God within them, and are also a kind of tabernacle and a kind of incarnation.

Catholic and Orthodox devotions refer to the Virgin Mary as the tabernacle--the place where God is/was staying. Some call her the first of the new tabernacles. Seems reasonable.

Bear suit

Some of us remember the safety engineering IgNobel prize given for a bear protective suit back in 1998.

I, of course, did not remember the man's name -- Troy Hurtubise -- nor whether it was actually ever tested yes, sort of. The grizzly was afraid of it and the Kodiak bear's trainer wouldn't let the other trial continue.

Check out that wikipedia page: he invented several things, including a fireproof paste, a nominally bulletproof exoskeleton for soldiers, and "angel light" for making things transparent (I hope I may be forgiven being more than a smidgeon dubious). He died in a fire from a traffic collision with a gasoline truck.

He filmed tests of his Vulkanite.

Accidents in manufacturing

"If you ain't bleeding, you ain't knapping" was the signature in one man's emails. Apparently he wasn't exaggerating.

we conducted a 31-question survey of modern knappers ... A variety of injuries (lacerations, punctures, aches, etc.) can occur on nearly any part of the body. The severity of injury sustained by some of our participants is shocking, and nearly one-quarter of respondents reported having sought or received professional medical attention

"Recommended protective gear, which modern knappers use to varying extents, includes gloves, leather lap pads, leather or rubber hand pads, and eye goggles"

Using leather protective gear suggests that somebody has done a bit of successful hunting already.

When asked what he would do if he got a knapped flake in his eye, Ishi indicated that he would “pull down his lower eyelid with the left forefinger, being careful not to blink or rub the lid. Then he bent over, looking at the ground and gave himself a tremendous thump on the crown of the head with the right hand”

Just in case you were looking for a new hobby. Or were trying to write a Robinson Crusoe story of your own.

Found via this article about bow and arrows in the Americas. With dating material so scarce, perhaps they have the first appearance of it (1400 years ago) wrong--maybe it appeared in the south first.

Deciphering labels

We've been getting a variety of whole wheat bread lately -- I won't give the brand. It's a smidgeon pricey, so I looked over the ingredients to see if this was something I could make myself. (And one in the household is keeping track of nutrition.) If I understand labeling rules, ingredients are supposed to be listed in order of their contribution by weight.

One of the ingredients is "Malted Barely Flour." OK...

The label says a loaf provides 17 serving sizes. Loaves consistently have 15 slices of bread, including the heels.

The loaf is listed as 1 lb. The kitchen scale says 1 lb 3 oz.

I'm not complaining, but has anybody looked at what they are advertising on their label?

Anyhow, the nutrition scaling factor is 1.34.

The right kind of sign

In John 6 we read of the feeding of the 5000 and the aftermath: Jesus withdraws to avoid being proclaimed king, walks on the sea that night to overtake His disciple's boat, and is followed by the crowd that had been fed. Jesus accuses them of just following Him for the sake of food, and this follows:

Do not work for the food which perishes, but for the food which endures to eternal life, which the Son of Man will give to you, for on Him the Father, God, has set His seal.” 28 Therefore they said to Him, “What shall we do, so that we may work the works of God?” 29 Jesus answered and said to them, “This is the work of God, that you believe in Him whom He has sent.” 30 So they said to Him, “What then do You do for a sign, so that we may see, and believe You? What work do You perform? 31 Our fathers ate the manna in the wilderness; as it is written, ‘He gave them bread out of heaven to eat.’”

"What then do You do for a sign?" In light of what happened just the day before, that's an odd question. "Our fathers ate the manna in the wilderness" Hint hint hint.

"You just gave us ordinary bread and fish. We want a jazzier miracle."

Philanthropy

I'd had a note to look up Pakistani charitable giving, and that led to World Giving Report, where the map claims that China is in the top 20%! That seemed less than believable, but apparently there've been some changes made recently. Charities Aid Foundation put them at 95'th out of 142, up from about the bottom. "corporate philanthropy, which makes up the bulk of Chinese charitable giving, in contrast with Europe and North America where individual giving dominates." The WGR report has numbers that don't quite match the CAF numbers, albeit for different years, and since I gather that the statistics are compiled by the government and given largely to government-approved projects, I'm guessing that the China numbers may be inflated and that since even they say 76% of the donations are corporate, that these are often a kind of informal tax.

But it is very interesting that a) the Chinese see benefits in charity which they didn't a few years ago or b) the Chinese government sees benefits in appearing to be charitable. Or perhaps both.

Hmm. I'm not fond of jello numbers. Alliance says 73% of Pakistanis donate money and 16% volunteer while 42% say "they are unable to donate to charitable causes due to financial constraints." Maybe they give to their neighbors (as required by Islam) and don't consider that "charitable cause." The WGR says 51% give directly.

The WGR says 61% of the US population donate and 28% volunteer, and only 28% give directly to people in need. Nigeria has 89% donating, 69% doing so directly, and has 76% volunteering.

The "UK ranked 64th most generous country".

I'm not sure where the data for all this comes from, and what the denominators are (in Nigeria they use "working age people" for the volunteering rate), so I suspect some fuzziness and some apples to pears comparisons. But at some level, in most places, people are helping neighbors and even strangers.

---

Why Pakistan? It considers itself the "land of the pure", devoted to Islam; and one of the pillars of Islam is Zakat: alms giving. Apparently they take it fairly seriously: 1.64% of income (.75% directly) vs 0.97% (.26% directly) in the US.

Backup plans

One of my mental exercises is to try to figure alternate ways of getting from A to B without the usual tools (e.g. no car), no handy friends, and as cheaply as possible. To get from Fermilab to Madison, back in the day, meant walking (no bus at the time) to Aurora to get to the commuter rail line, taking that to downtown Chicago, taking the El to O'Hare, and then an intercity bus to Madison. The last time I took the El to O'Hare was 20 years ago.

One should revisit these things now and then, and not take the solution as "good for all time." There's a pair of buses now you can take to get to Aurora, the commuter trains run every hour until late, and the intercity bus leaves from close to Union Station, so you can skip the O'Hare link. Which is probably a good thing, especially when not at peak ridership times.

Which snapshot do you use

I thought I'd written about this years ago, but apparently not.

We visited an Illinois park with a little museum attached, which included a reconstruction of the interior of one of the cabins, with lots of original artifacts.

The cabin had been in use for a century, and undergone some expansion and remodeling and refinishing. Which snapshot do you use to represent its history?

With computerized displays alongside it (all the "cool kids" use them), why not all of them? Pick a year range and show what it looked like then. Maybe even animate them. If you wanted to be really wild you could let a camera take a picture of your face and have yourself among the avatars inhabiting the house. But a camera is one more thing to break, of course.

I'd think you could do this fairly inexpensively these days with the new AI drawing systems – I hear they've even starting getting the number of fingers right. It might help make it easier to understand that everybody had to start small, and simple, and rough. And a lot of the first changes were utilitarian.

"Finds it unoccupied, swept, and put in order"

An image rather than a logical analysis: The world of a pagan or animist is full of spirits and gods, sometimes in unexpected places, providing unexpected limits on what you want to do. Beware of transgressing the ancient sacred sites and sacred rites that divide the physical and moral landscape.

When monotheism arrives, most of the sacred sites are swept away, and those that remain are, as it were, baptized into meaning as part of the monotheism. The landscape is cleaned and emptied, to some degree dis-enchanted, certainly somewhat exorcised.

If the monotheism fades, what new demons come to fill that now-empty space?

Approximating a magic function

I got to wondering about a function to generate the primes: $\Pi(n)=$ n'th prime. Obviously that would have truly weird behavior: an infinite number of primes are only 2 apart, and the gaps between primes can also be exceedingly large too. But just for laughs, suppose one existed.

I'd bet that you couldn't use a Taylor series to calculate it – maybe locally, but nothing like the famous $1 + x/1 + x^2/2! + x^3/3! ...$.

Suppose you approximated it with longer and longer polynomials. Name the polynomial that fits the first $N$ primes ${}_{N}\Pi(x)$ (with ${}_{N}\Pi(k) = p_k$; the k'th prime, with k less or equal to $N$), and the coefficient of the $x^j$ term call ${}_{N}c_j$.<\p>

As $N$ increases, and the new polynomial fits more and more primes, do the coefficients converge? The first (the constant term of the polynomial) ${}_Nc_0$ is always $1$. How about the second ${}_Nc_1$ (coefficient of $x$) and third ${}_Nc_2$ (coefficient of $x^2$)? (By the construction of these, the polynomial to fit $N$ primes will only have $N+1$ coefficients.)

It won't come as a great surprise to see that they don't seem to converge. The polynomials resulting from fitting the first 30 primes gives this for the behavior of those two coefficients. They look like they're about to blow up.

But its not that simple. Expand the graph to include the first 50 polynomial second and third coefficients, and they switch directions and start to blow up the other way. You see that the deviation that looked so large in the plot above is invisibly small in the one below.

Not a big surprise – we didn't expect that the magic $\Pi(x)$ function to find all the primes was going to be simple to approximate. After all, the magic function has to be extremely "jumpy" and polynomials are nice and smooth. But the variation is certainly dramatic.

Of course this isn't entirely fair – trying to fit polynomials to points is famously ugly and unstable. But this is pretty dramatic.

UPDATE: If you were wondering if I was plotting round-off error, the answer is no. I did the calculations using pari/gp 2.13.3, and only turned the integer rational numbers into floating point at the printing step. If you are curious, I include the script below:

Top = 50
coeffs=matrix(Top, Top)
for(N=2, Top, \
 target=primes(N) - vector(N, k, 1); \
 arr = matrix(N, N, i, j, i^j); \
 co = (1/arr)*target~; \
 for(i=1, N, coeffs[N,i] = co[i];););
\\
for(i=1,Top,\
 for(j=1, Top, print1(1.*coeffs[j,i],","););print(" ");)

I hadn't noticed

“If a slain person is found lying in the open country in the land which the Lord your God gives you to possess, and it is not known who has struck him ... All the elders of that city which is nearest to the slain man shall wash their hands over the heifer whose neck was broken in the valley; and they shall answer and say, ‘Our hands did not shed this blood, nor did our eyes see it.

And When Pilate saw that he was accomplishing nothing, but rather that a riot was starting, he took water and washed his hands in front of the crowd, saying, “I am innocent of this Man’s blood; see to that yourselves.”

I'd thought it was a Roman thing, but apparently he knew a bit of the local custom.

Baseball cards

A few memories forcibly reminded me of some thoughts on foolishness as something that defiles.

After mentally squirming a bit, I moved on to other tasks of the day -- and ran across "The dean of the Episcopal cathedral in Pittsburgh" shoplifted $1000 worth of baseball cards from Walmart.

In light of eternity many things we're fascinated with are foolish, but even by ordinary light: he's 42 and "Very Reverend"; is fascination with children's toys seemly?

"For Wales? Why Richard, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales!"

Staying attentive

We got to talking about the difference in preaching between your typical anglo congregation and a black one. I suspect that the more congregation-interactive approach ("Can I get an Amen?") in the latter leads to less of "Beautiful Dreamer".

Hunger and thirst

Someone pointed out that while you could go a day without drinking anything, it was nearly impossible, if you were interacting with other people, to go a day without justifying yourself. Sometimes even when alone, we make excuses to ourselves for the less reputable memories.

Perhaps the "hunger and thirst for righteousness" is really very common, but we go hunting for it in the wrong places: Do-it-yourself frameworks (If I do X, Y, and not Z I'm good), excuses, or persuading (or intimidating) other people into affirming you.

All instead of wanting real righteousness and finding the One who can make it right.

One learns

We've driven sedans, then station wagons as the family grew, then minivans. I looked at people driving SUV's and wondered why? You don't drive them offroad, or carry heavy loads -- what's the attraction for you?

Well, minivans are scarcer and pricier, and a pickup doesn't match our main use cases. So if one or both of the drivers have a grumpy back, an SUV is quite a bit easier to get in and out of than a sedan. Sort of like those "old people's" big sedans with soft suspensions. I get it now... and we did, a compact SUV.

It's a little thing

but perhaps it only seems so.

I've no objection to -- in fact it seems fine -- a pastor or other leader joining in some silly and perhaps slightly humiliating play: e.g. slide down into a tub of jello just as the kids are doing.

The dunk tank (or pie throwing) isn't the same. Somebody is humiliating another. Participation is voluntary, yes, but the ball thrower is acting against the dunkee. All in fun? Maybe. I still don't like it.

Winning in Iran

I don't see the point of talking about "unconditional surrender"--we can't enforce that without boots on the ground and everybody knows we can't do that (Data republican has numbers).

My record at prediction isn't good, so don't take this as prophecy, but at a guess, since politics is the art of the possible and Iran's mullahs invested the IRCG with a lot of their enforcement power, then if there is "regime change" the IRCG will play some role. Who has the arms and organization to stamp them out?

That would imply that the new government wouldn't be entirely satisfactory to us, since it would include a faction that still wants regional domination (and maybe to "immanentize the eschaton" too), and not be altogether stable either.

That's almost certainly still better than the previous situation. We can't command nice clear-cut victories and transformations all the time; or even most of the time. Even World War II -- we had lots of boots on the ground and "unconditional surrenders," and we still had to make some very messy compromises at the end of it: not least with the USSR, but also with the Germans and Japanese.

I sometimes think it's safer to fight for interests rather than ideals. Interests you can compromise, if the matter is not existential: "We need X but the price is too high so we'll settle for Y, at least for the next decade"; but ideals sometimes demand more dedication.