Friday, January 01, 2021

Iran and aircraft carriers

AP says "US to move aircraft carrier out of Mideast amid Iran tension". Chris Miller decided to "send it home" a day after we sent some B-52's overhead. AP says "Sending the aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, home to the U.S. West Coast would seem at odds with the idea that a show of force is needed to deter Iran."

I wonder if it means the opposite. Sitting in the Persian Gulf makes it a target for missiles. We have anti-missile capability, but I'd bet they have enough missiles to overwhelm it. They have some proxies they could use for implausible deniability, though I don't think it would phase our leadership much. And we demonstrated the day before that we don't need to have equipment right on site to do them damage.

If my speculation is right, pulling it out means we expect war, and don't want to lose a lot of assets in the first round.

Since it takes away a juicy target, it might reduce the odds of hot war too. I don't know anything about internal Iranian politics.

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