Wednesday, August 03, 2016

Wishful thinking

Doubting at Grim's Hall links to a Foreign Policy article suggesting that Catholic France was likely to rise up in a new crusade.

I don't believe it.

I've read people claiming that an attempt to confiscate guns in the USA would result in a revolution. I doubt it.

I use a popcorn model for most revolts. When the popper really gets going the noise fills the house and the corn overflows the bowl and it's all very dramatic. But it starts out with one lonesome pop. And then another, and then a few more, and then more.

Some revolts are sudden--everybody lives in fear of Ceaușescu until the day when they don't. I can easily see a revolt against political correctness on the same lines: we all hunker down because of the SJWs until a child points out that they have no clothes. They certainly do not have superior morals.

But violent popular revolts generally have to cross a major barrier: the threat of repercussions to me and mine. When enough people cross that line you have the revolt, but before that happens there'll be one guy (an oddball) who snaps, then another, and then a few more, and then people start organizing to protect themselves and the revolt starts to begin. (Civil wars driven by powerful players can play out differently.)

That's what I'm not seeing. There are a few videos of people venting(*), but almost all the violence I hear of in France comes from one side only. Unless the news is censored (and I can't put that past the ENArchs), there are no harbingers of revolt in France.

And in this country, I get the strong impression that lots of people like to sound big, with vague threats of possible disasters. But I haven't heard that legislators or judges are meeting untimely ends at a rate higher than normal.

You can argue that things are going bad, and that we cannot go on forever without chaos. That's true enough, but I think Isaiah and Jeremiah might be more relevant than bloggers writing about guns or what happens when the descendants of the Vikings get mad.

(*) And if you equate venting from one side with throat cutting from the other, I'm afraid we have no language in common. God may view things that way from His standard of absolute perfection; you may not.

1 comment:

Sam L. said...

I'm certain that the news is censored. And that the government is afraid of Marie lePen's supporters. The preference cascade is yet to erupt, but "the natives are restless",