Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Who benefits (again)

In the news reports I skimmed yesterday, some of the usual suspects explained why having children is a bad idea and that they'll never do it (for the sake of future generations--parse that...). What X thinks is X's affair, but the publicity is managed by money. And my first question these days is "who benefits? in this case from people having fewer kids?" I wish I didn't have to be so cynical.

Short term--anybody who sells toys for adults instead of children. Double income, no kids ==> lots of money to spend on consumables, entertainments, travel--and having two cogs in the machine instead of one helps keeps down the wage you have to pay a cog. And it is easier to sell stuff to someone who is vaguely disatisfied with life. (Yes, I know poverty is really hard when there are lots of little mouths to feed--but we're talking upper and middle class here.)

Longer term--you won't have as many customers, but lots of firms don't look that far ahead.

I looked up one of those cost of raising a child stories to see if I could figure out the relative expenses of a child and an adult. I already knew the expenses were elastic--the nominal \$233,000 for a total of 17 years times 5 kids was quite a bit more than I was pulling down. But this bit was interesting: "The actual cost of raising a baby in its first year is around \$21,000 (for a household earning \$40,000) and \$52,000 (for one bringing home \$200,000)." True, they include the cost of housing in that, but I guess more money burns holes in your pockets faster.

In case you were curious, the USDA report has a \$13K annual estimate per kid for a 2-child family with income between \$59K and \$107K. At the low end of that, it comes to \$13K per kid and \$15K per adult (OK, with taxes maybe more like \$10K/adult), and if I assume a linear relationship from the previous paragraph's numbers, \$21K per kid and \$33K per adult at the upper end. (with taxes maybe less).

So it looks as though adults are about as costly as kids, maybe more so. Don't trust these hacked numbers--the devil is in the details/taxes/elasticity.

Monday, July 15, 2019

Sodom

I missed the announcements last year, but there's a claim that the largest Bronze Age city of the era, buried in Tall el-Hammam is what's left of Sodom. Whatever it was, it was certainly a major player in the region--nothing else is that big or well-fortified. And there's some evidence of intense heat, and a destruction time in the range of 1750-1650BC.

It is fascinating to read the arguments of the scholars, a few of whom are Bishop Usher followers.. My takeaway from the last link is that trying to tease out critical background details from stories focussed on other things can be fraught, and that parsing out old names isn't reliable. And that there's some bitterness between groups of scholars.

A little extra platinum in the area suggests a air-burst meteor, though something volcanic or even a natural gas burst would also be possible. I look forward to hearing more about this. If it wasn't Sodom, it was a hitherto unreported culture.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Hell

The existence of hell isn't the most popular of doctrines. A preacher can win fame and fortune by denying it.

Jesus warned that we should fear Him who is able to destroy body and soul in hell, and spoke of the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels. I don't think it wise to contradict Him. If your wisdom has led you to the conclusion that hell is either symbolic or a warning that will never be implemented, then at least remember that Jesus has His own good reasons for expressing the warning--are you sure you are wiser than He?

What kind of punishment is hell? Jesus describes it as a place of destruction, and also of fire, and in Revelation it is depicted as a lake of fire and a second death--and at least the beast and false prophet are tormented forever. I don't know what time is like when there is no longer a body, and I've no notion of how times relate to each other hereafter. It isn't impossible that forever and a blink of an eye are the same event from different perspectives. (Hint: what does the photon travel time from a distant galaxy look like to us, and look like to the photon?)

Early on there were visions of hell that showed people getting different punishments. Dante didn't invent the idea. There's quite a bit of literature describing Jewish and Christian tours of hell, some dated back to the first century AD. I've read a little bit; I think Dante did a much better job of matching the sin to the punishment.

"Pain as God’s megaphone is a terrible instrument; it may lead to final and unrepented rebellion. But it gives the only opportunity the bad man can have for amendment. It removes the veil; it plants the flag of truth within the fortress of a rebel soul." Elsewhere Lewis notes that our sense of justice demands that the guilty one understand the gravity of his crime. Maybe it's presumptuous, but that seems right to me too.

I like Inferno by Niven and Pournelle. Its thesis (if you haven't read it already, do) is that those who appreciate the gravity of their sin can repent even from hell. They had some fun slotting in modern sinners and new categories of sinners (e.g. advertisers, who of course are in the circle of liars), but in that book and in its sequel they had trouble figuring out how to deal with solipsism, and the hunger and thirst to be lied to.

For solipsists the most appropriate punishment would seem to be to make it absolutely clear that there is reality and that they are contingent. It sounds like the kind of change that would break your mind--which is probably why God doesn't force that kind of revelation on us on a regular basis.

Maybe the judgment is punishment by itself, and the lake of fire is destruction.

Whichever--it isn't the way to go. "That's where all the interesting people are!" uses the same meaning of "interesting" as "May you live in interesting times".

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Doing business abroad

CocaCola is "remodeling" in Liberia

That's what the headline says, and the story mentions that several times, but what they're actually doing is stopping local production in favor of importing the beverages. The remodeling is to make the plant a distribution center.

The press release requires translation, as usual. The newspaper provides one.

The statement continued: “The realities of the Liberian market have evolved and become more complex in the last few years. After a recent evaluation of our current business model in the country we recognized that it needed to be reorganized so that it can respond quickly to the evolving needs of our customers more efficiently and sustainably. Despite various other changes applied to date, the current business model remains unsustainable, so the company has decided to take steps to transform the facility into a distribution center to ensure the service to our customers.”

This means the company will no longer be manufacturing the beverage in Liberia but will import drinks for distribution in Liberia

"Since 1949, the bottling company which produces and markets Bonaqua, Schweppes, Burn, Fanta, Sprite, Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Light, Coca-Cola Zero at its Liberia plant on the Kakata road, has been a fixture."

"the Liberian market is said to be flooded with low quality unregulated soft drinks."

Both the Ministry of Commerce and the Freeport of Monrovia have kept their eyes off the ball by allowing all kinds of beverages including Coca Cola rival, Pepsi and others into the market without duty, thereby allowing importers to price at or below the price of the locally produced product, which also limits the ability to take prices up.

... Priced in local Liberian currency to the consumers, all the ingredients are imported and priced in US dollars, to the company’s detriment.

Duty free? Interesting. That's not the rule.. I'll bet several people got a "small dash."

The Coke Facebook page is 3 years old.


We used to buy Coke in 24-bottle wood cases, returning the empty bottles and the case for their deposits. Several miles of shaking over dirt roads in a hot trunk left the bottles too "trigger-happy" to drink, so we set the crate in the laundry room to cool off and settle down for a day while we used the last from the old crate. There wasn't always room in the refrigerator for a few. The temptation is obvious. When I tried the secret swap, I worried that my sister would notice that the bottle was warm, or that she would pry the cap slowly and be warned, but she was very thirsty and when she popped the cap off the spray hit the ceiling. Literally. (Mom was annoyed for some reason--though I don't think the spray hit her.)

It gives you a warm feeling when plans go just right, doesn't it? I wasn't worried about waste; I didn't like Coke anyway--Sprite was my preference. Or water with lots of ice in it. (We used Katadyn ceramic water filters--there was no chlorine or any other cleansing in the water. When it came time to clean the filters they were foul.)

Spontaneous combustion

"Sushi 'crunch' caused 2 restaurant fires by spontaneous combustion".

It doesn't have to be oily rags. It can be oily batter.

Sunday, July 07, 2019

Smuggling

I don't know how new these sources were (it has a 2.6 year half-life), but "Turkish police in the Black Sea region seize 18.1 grams of radioactive californium". Estimated value 72M$. That's a bit more than 3 quarters in weight. It was under the gear shift in the car.

The dose rate is about 2200-2300 rem (m^2 / gram hour). Let's see. 18.1g means about 40krem (m^2 / hour). If the driver was 1m away, and passengers 2m away (you can ignore shielding effects of the material around it--these are neutrons), and the trip was 3 hours, the passengers got about a 30,000 rem dose of neutrons and the driver 4x as much. And they'd get about 1/14 as much of that dose in gammas as well. The LD50/30 (50% die in 30 days) dose is about 450rem.

10,000 rem means death in 0-5 days.

Even if the source was 2 half lives (5.2 years) old, if it was pure you'd still expect the couriers to die--and maybe pass out on the trip.

"In a scare in March of last year, police in Ankara said they had seized a whopping 1.4kg of the same substance in a car following a tip-off. It turned out to be false alarm, as the haul was later found to have no trace of nuclear or radioactive material, and was, in fact, organic matter." I wonder if this will be similar, or if somebody was being very careless.

Peter and Thomas

"Doubting" Thomas seems pretty bold to me. When Jesus said he needed to go into danger, Thomas offered to go and die with him. After seeing the resurrected Jesus for himself, Thomas made the boldest declaration of Jesus' nature of any of them. And later, he took the boldest missionary journey, away from the relative security of the Roman Empire and into lands he'd only heard of.(*)

Peter seems more impetuous. "Tell me to walk on the water." Oops. "I'll never deny you!" Oops. Jump in the water to swim to shore for Jesus. Check. Chopping off an adversary's ear isn't exactly impetuosity--from his POV he was one of the two swordsmen responsible for defense of the group, though he didn't wait for orders--Jesus said there were angels available if He wanted them. After Pentecost he's described as bold, though Paul complained about Peter's courage in Galatians.


(*) Thomas probably knew there were Jews in India, though.

Saturday, July 06, 2019

Friday, July 05, 2019

Outsiders

Diversity in STEM is all the rage these days, with Women in Physics groups and activities, and other subgroups as well (though those are not so well attended); all intended to make it easier for minorities to become comfortable in the group.

I can empathize. I've been in large groups where everybody knows everybody else, I've been the only one of my skin color, and the bulk of the crowd was not friendly--though not unfriendly either. It feels stifling at best.

There are simple and obvious ways to address this "stifling:"

  1. Make sure everybody is told that they have to welcome strangers. Um. Icebreakers are one thing, pre-scripted "acceptance" is another. Granted, the population of scientists and engineers is somewhat enriched in the socially inept, who might need some reminders.
  2. Make sure there are people who look like the newbies. I know what my natural tendency would be--hang out with the folks like me. I gather that tends to happen in the Women in Physics groups, but I haven't studied them in detail.
  3. Forget yourself

Self-forgetfulness may sound very Zen, or like a Christian saint's humility, but I think it may be the best option.

At a church where you're the only one who doesn't know the drill, concentrate on Who you are worshipping. You are in communion with the others who are also concentrating on God, and that's a good place to be.

At a party where you're the odd duck, games can make the connections between people. Concentrating on the play (whether you are participating or watching) gives you something in common with the others: a connection. It's ephemeral, but it works.

In a science team, concentrate on the problem. Maybe it is too hard for you alone; ask for help. Forget about your past, or your hair (or lack thereof; I'm often the oldest one in the group)--look at the problem and you become a scientist, engineer, mathematician, doctor--along with the rest. You become by doing, and become part of the group of doers. Maybe you won't be in the "cool crowd." Meh.

Look at it from the outside. Only hopeless tribalists care about the PC beancounting--everybody else wants to know "What have you discovered?" or "What did you make?" or "Can you cure her, doc?" A gratuitous rainbow on your press release tells people you've been spending time doing something other than the research you were paid to do.


Those "hopeless tribalists" are deadly when they get hold of power. I'm reading my one-time supervisor's book The Soviet Atomic Project, and the account of what happened to harmless researchers when Stalin's purges swept through is pretty grim. One theorist wrote an article explaining (before the discovery of the neutrino) that conservation of energy was a bourgeois concept that had no place in Soviet lands. His loyalty didn't save him from execution.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Round up the usual suspects

"LAPD pioneered predicting crime with data. Many police don’t think it works"
“It never panned out,” said Rodriguez, who spent 11 years with the LAPD. “It didn't really make much sense to us. It wasn’t telling us anything we didn’t know.”

Are you surprised?

From the Olmstead police: "They say 10 percent of the people commit 90 percent of the crimes; we get familiar with names."

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

Just missed it

I was only about a minute away from running into an altercation involving Jehovah J God.

Summertime, and the downtown is easy--and the population has grown quite a bit. I think I've seen one of the women involved in this fracas before, but she's not one of the regulars. There are some new predators in the mix this year, but fortunately so far I'm not seeing teenagers hanging out.

Most of the working or visiting people just go about their business, with the "leave other people alone" courtesy that easily shades into, or is taken for, "don't care."

Friday, June 28, 2019

This generation will not pass away

Even if Abdul hadn’t been violently sick with the flu, he could not have come with me to survey the new dig site. His daughter Rebeka was just back from St. Pricilla’s, and needed a ride to St. Anne’s orphanage, where she was to take her final vows with the Sisters of St. Veronica.

I agreed to drive his wife and daughter to the orphanage, while the five younger children took care of him. His wife introduced me to Rebeka, who looked every bit the nun in her black and grey habit, quietly reading the breviary. “I’ve always wanted to help lonely children,” Rebeka told me. “And I love quiet and I love prayer.”

Her mother Sara wore the sturdy frame of a woman who had coped with nearly everything. She chattered away as though words kept the world in its place—which perhaps they do.

Rebeka got in back and Sara sat beside me. The road jarred my teeth. Archaeologists get used to that, but I had to apologize to my passengers every few minutes during our two-hour drive. I wondered about the wisdom of siting an orphanage out in this dry landscape.

The dell with the orphanage turned out to have spots of green in a little garden. I guessed they must have a spring inside the compound. Walls of 20 feet of windowless brown stonework protected the nuns and children inside.

I parked next to a decrepit Accord and wondered who the other visitor might be. We left the windows down. It might invite flies, but at least we wouldn’t roast on the return trip. You haven’t a choice about windows in the city.

As we walked to the door, a bell rang somewhere and the sound of children’s voices spread. The words in blue above the door were Greek: “IDOU SOU METER,” “behold your mother.” That’s a nice motto for an orphanage.

Sara swung the weathered knocker with loud bangs. The doorkeeper arrived. We identified ourselves to her, and she opened the heavy old slab. The walls were nearly three feet thick, and some of the masonry was seventh century. On the inside the words above the door read “IDOU SOU HUIOS,” “behold your son.”

About 20 children from three to fourteen ran around the courtyard as two nuns watched them from the shade. The doorkeeper guided us to a pair of worn wooden benches, and then ushered Rebeka into a room by the chapel. Her mother fell silent. The smell of clean water from the brick wellspring by the wall was delightful.

We waited and watched the children play. The doors were arched high, with a cross on the left top and an empty tomb on the right. I wanted to get a closer look at the arch for one of the doors, and at the painting over the chapel door, but I didn’t want to disturb the children’s play. The littlest ones ran about shrieking, and the older ones played some complicated game of catch with two balls.

A bell rang twice, and the nuns retrieved the balls and shepherded the youngsters into the classrooms, singing a catchy song in Arabic about addition facts. A middle-aged nun came out to us with a tray and teacups.

By the time we finished the tea Father Jacob and a surprisingly spritely old nun came out of the chapel. I hadn’t expected to see Jacob here. He is Orthodox and the nuns are Catholic.

Sara and I rose, and the old nun quickly made for us and introduced “This is my son Jacob. And this is my son …” she looked at me expectantly.

Father Jacob broke in: “I know your son Steven already, and this must be your daughter Sara, Rebeka’s mother.”

“I know you must leave now,” the old nun said to Father Jakob, “But can you give them your blessing first?”

I’m Methodist, and had never received an Orthodox blessing before. Neither had Sara, who didn’t understand Greek. But her suspicion faded and she smiled. At the end of it the nun turned and startled us with “Your turn.” I helped Sara start off and she remembered the words from there. The nun hugged Father Jakob and he left.

The old nun, whose name turned out to be Miriam, invited us to visit a classroom. The ceilings were high and decorated with scenes from the Gospels, and the rooms were kept cool and well-lit by their tall windows. (The curious feature of the arch turned out to be merely an 18’th century repair.) Rebeka sat in the corner with one of the children, facing away from the door, quietly re-explaining the lesson.

We waited while Miriam watched her intently for a minute, and then motioned us on. Before I knew what was happening the three of us were in the orphanage’s crowded kitchen, chopping vegetables. A nun kneading dough suggested that I chop a bit finer, but applauded Sara’s work.

One nun stirred a large kettle with one hand and fingered a rosary with the other. We were close enough that I could hear that she wasn’t reciting the usual prayers. Each bead took a long time. I looked at Miriam, who spoke before I asked: “We use the old style here. Each bead is a psalm.”

Sara looked askance at that, but I explained that this really did predate the modern usage. She replied that she, for one, would keep on saying “Hail Mary.” Miriam seemed amused. I couldn’t quite hear the prayers she was whispering.

The doorkeeper of the day came in with the news that “Father Benedict is here with the new boy.”
Miriam set down her knife and left, and, after filling the pot with the vegetables, so did we. The cooks thanked us, and asked us to take a tray of tea to the guest. Helping prepare food has always felt satisfying.

I stared over my shoulder as we walked out of the kitchen. The image over the chapel door turned out to be Jesus with sheep. The figure of Jesus was unusually lifelike.

Miriam and another nun sat beside the young boy on a bench by the chapel. He squeezed a red ball as he answered their questions. We took the tray across the courtyard to Father Benedict. He is the priest of Sara’s parish.

“How do you like being called “Son,” Father?” Sara asked

Benedict laughed. “It never bothers me. She says it and it is true. She’s old enough to be my mother—no, my grandmother. But everybody she meets is her son or daughter.”

“Did the bishop give the order dispensation to use the old prayers?” I asked.

“They’ve been doing things their way time out of mind,” he said. “She says the Emperor Mauritius was too much of an innovator. Besides, I don’t think the Bishop could tell his mother “no.” And the bishop before him was her son too, you know.”

“And so is Father Jakob.”

Benedict shrugged. “Of course.”

Sara looked puzzled. “Mauritius? Who?”

“He was fifth century. They don’t celebrate the Feast of the Dormition here. Their rites are very old,” Benedict explained. “The bishop told us that when we’re here, we do things their way.”

Across the courtyard the new boy seemed to have lost his shyness and bounced on his toes with excitement. The nuns stood, and the boy raced to the kitchen, followed by the younger nun. Miriam went to the classroom where Rebeka sat and beckoned to her. Rebeka came out and followed Miriam to where we were sitting. We rose for them, and I dragged the benches to face each other.

When we all sat down again, Miriam faced Rebeka and said “Dear daughter, God has a hard job for you.”

“Yes, mother, I understand. Protecting and teaching orphans will be hard, and they are not always grateful.”

“No, dear child, harder than that. You will have to serve and learn to be holy in the world, not the convent. You will still take care of strangers, but also your own children too.”

“But mother,” Rebeka protested, “This is what I’ve wanted, and felt called to, and vowed—how can I be pure in the middle of an unholy world? It’s impossible! Do you know what it’s like out there?”

Father Benedict wore a wry smile, but did not interrupt.

“Daughter, _I_ did. I had a husband once. And a son.”

Father Benedict started. “I didn’t know you were married!”

“Yes, son.” She kept her eyes on Rebeka. “My husband died long, long ago. My son is alive.”

Rebeka ventured, “I can be like you—even with feuding families whose boys pull knives on each other? And who say such things to Christians?”

“I had to endure just as bad as that, and more. It is hard, but that is what Christ wants of you. I’ve had to run for my life many times, and only the help of angels keeps this shelter safe from the serpent.”

Rebeka bent her head and started to cry.

Miriam lifted Rebeka’s chin up with a finger. “Save the tears for the real heartaches, daughter,” she said softly.

Rebeka wiped her face and said “I … I obey.”

“Good. There are joys too, don’t forget, and a crown. God bless you, daughter.”

We stood. Sara hugged her daughter.

Benedict looked at Miriam with an eyebrow cocked to silently ask “How could you tell that quickly?” Miriam just smiled—a very young smile with very old joy.

The doorkeeper let us out through the tunnel in the wall. I turned back and asked Miriam a question that had exercised some of us for a while. “Did you know?”

“Did not our hearts burn within us?” she answered. “You are in my prayers.” The ancient door softly closed as we left.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

More than one

I was meant to take
 our little Jenny to the lake
 and bring her back to Gramma's home
 with wonder in her eyes about the dawn
 showing you the string of fish
 she caught all by herself--almost.

And John was meant to help you 
 plant and weed and reap your gardens
 the summer that you broke your leg
 and couldn't kneel beside him
 while you taught the budding engineer
 how to care for growing things.

And Betty Lou was meant to learn your stuffing
 as she cooked with you our first Thanksgiving,
 and then let the dishes wait;
 the two of you stay up till four
 while she put music to the verses
 that you never told the rest of us about.

Will you sing your songs with Betty Lou?
 Or she and I smile for the baby kicks?
  Will I live to share that English class with her?
   Or bring you spring bouquets of dandelions?
    You tell them you're not ready yet to be a mother.
It won't be only me that dies today.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Making people

AI is still a hot topic, with lots of advances and almost advances. Robots look almost human and almost do human things.

At the art museum we saw amazingly complex cabinetry.

Despite these wonderful things, the most amazing and complex things you are likely to see are other human beings. Complicated, creative, fascinating, hopefully loveable, unique--works of art. And we get to make more.

The winds of the age tell us no, there are too many people ("I love mankind, it's people I can't stand"), or disparage parents as lower class ("breeders" or "popping out babies"). The voices of the age love to abstract people into faceless groups for easier manipulation. What they're not so good at is noticing that the man in front of you is irreplaceable, and wouldn't be here if other people hadn't engendered and raised him.

We see so many people that we take them for granted, as most people take sparrows for granted and don't appreciate their design and individuality. And we take the parents for granted. "Being a parent isn't real work, it's common, and it's less important than my work."

I've heard the phrase "making babies," but that's only the start. We're "making people," in miracles so common they're invisible. Except perhaps to the new parents.

Combined

Rev 1:9 "I, John, your brother and fellow partaker in the tribulation and kingdom and perseverance which are in Jesus, was on the island called Patmos because of the word of God and the testimony of Jesus."

I don't generally like to think of tribulation and perseverance as being necessary parts of a being a partaker in a kingdom. Not much choice, is there?

Lying

Pride is traditionally the primal sin.

I think lying gives it a run for the money.

They're related. A lie can be a refusal to submit to reality, or an attempt to make my word a "fiat" like God's, making or remaking the universe to my will.

Pride of the "I'm superior" flavor is founded on lies. Either form of lies has a clear relationship to pride.

Some things about the two are similar, but not all.

Everybody hates the proud--but we don't mind being proud.

On the other hand, some of us are fine with being told lies. Politicians who tell the truth tend not to get elected. Politicians who lie destroy us. Take Illinois. A couple of generations of state employees were told that they had pensions, but as far as I can tell the legislators never intended to fund the pensions. To put the best spin on it, they seem to have hoped that money would be raised in the future--which means they were lying to themselves too. Illinois is broke, and a huge part of that is those pensions they lied about.

Lies break us apart from community.

Among the Gbandes: "He who steals is one who is also capable of killing and lying." Lying breaks the trust that binds the tribe together, and lost trust is potentially lethal when you live close to the margin.

We probably know a few Christians who drifted away from the faith when they were promised (perhaps as children, and they never learned the adult faith?) a happy life instead of a sacrificial one. The prosperity gospel is a cruel lie, though the consequences of it aren't always visible here; they lose the greater community, though.

Jesus called the devil "father of lies." That and "murderer" seem to be the important characteristics He wants us to remember about the devil.

I'm not going to say that I'm wiser than 2000 years of church theologians and give lying pride of place among the sins. But it is a fundamental one.

Vanity Fair

Bunyan is tough to imitate. I was told that he wrote the best and the second-best allegories in the English language (The Holy War), and his images enriched English literature amazingly.

Nevertheless I think Hawthorne did a worth job re-describing Vanity Fair in "The Celestial Railroad". A snippet:

There was a sort of stock or scrip, called Conscience, which seemed to be in great demand, and would purchase almost anything. Indeed, few rich commodities were to be obtained without paying a heavy sum in this particular stock, and a man's business was seldom very lucrative unless he knew precisely when and how to throw his hoard of conscience into the market. Yet as this stock was the only thing of permanent value, whoever parted with it was sure to find himself a loser in the long run.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

DNA dating

Japan has lots of fads: DNA dating caught the Telegraph's eye.
Its concept is simple: based on the survivalist scientific theory that people with the most diverse DNA are the most attracted to one another, participants are required to simply provide a saliva swab.

This is then analysed by scientists, with a particular focus on HLA, a gene complex with more than 16,000 variations which are commonly associated with immune system regulation and are also believed play a key role in attraction levels between humans.

The company is then able to match up potential couples based on how similar or different their HLA genes are – with 100 per cent compatibility issued to couples who have a zero HLA match, while the compatibility figure shrinks when there are higher rates of HLA similarities.

I wonder. The more different they are, the more likely there are going to be DNA-linked personality differences. "Opposites attract:" sometimes: so do similar people.

Most fads don't have staying power. I suspect this one won't either; and it focusses on dating, not on children. When the Chinese work up a version of it, it might be mandatory.

No specialists

The Navy is supposedly taking to the Silicon Valley idea that experts are passe, at least for a number of occupations on the sea. A sailor must be able to do several different jobs, not just one.
The ship’s most futuristic aspect, though, is its crew. The LCS was the first class of Navy ship that, because of technological change and the high cost of personnel, turned away from specialists in favor of “hybrid sailors” who have the ability to acquire skills rapidly. It was designed to operate with a mere 40 souls on board—one-fifth the number aboard comparably sized “legacy” ships and a far cry from the 350 aboard a World War II destroyer. The small size of the crew means that each sailor must be like the ship itself: a jack of many trades and not, as 240 years of tradition have prescribed, a master of just one.

...

On the bridge, five crew members do the jobs usually done by 12, thanks to high-tech display screens and the ship’s several thousand remote sensors. And belowdecks, once-distinct engineering roles—electrician’s mate, engine man, machinist, gas-turbine technician—fall to the same handful of sailors.

I don't know about now, but back in WW-II submariners had specialties, but were supposed to be able to handle any job on the boat--in an emergency you might have to run whatever you were near. Of course, submarine school was tough and most applicants washed out.

I'm not sure if the Navy is trying to make a virtue of necessity. Understaffing was one of the contributing factors in the Fitzgerald crash. So was lack of maintenance, and I'm not quite clear how having fewer sailors makes that easier.

My wife has just finished the first draft of a novel about a submariner in WW-II. Reading about the real stories reminds you that the enemy gets a vote on your staffing. The Navy had lots of sailors on those boats for three very good reasons.

  1. Men get killed. You need "spares" to keep fighting, or just to keep the boat from sinking.
  2. When you're exhausted, frightened, or surprised, practice and habit make the difference. You know how to handle the shells because you practice all the time. If you have to bring in an inexperienced sailor, somebody has to spend the time and attention to keep them doing the right thing--assuming there's somebody left in his corner.
  3. Flexible thinkers/learners aren't the majority. When you start losing boats and sailors, you need to be a little less picky about who you draft. Simple jobs may be boring, but you can train most anybody to do them.

Maybe the Navy brass think the next war will go all our way, with no jamming of the inter-ship ethernet, no scrambling of our sensors, and all our wonderful defensive hardware working just as advertised: "fire the cruise missiles and go down to the mess for a beer."

I doubt that's true for near-peer opponent, and it sure isn't true for a peer enemy.

I'm guessing this is another exercise in make-believe, betting the sailors' lives, and ultimately ours, that their powerpoint models work.