Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Just saying...

I see headlines about polls saying Trump can beat Hillary, and about polls saying he can't. I read others explaining how he appeals to the alienated, and how this is either good or bad, depending on the political persuasion of the writer.

I noticed that none of these folks predicted his success. Given their typical topics and persuasions, I'd bet that they personally know very few of the people they attempt to psychoanalyze, even though there must be quite a few Trump supporters around the country.

Why exactly am I to consider them experts? I suppose newspaper pundits don't get paid unless they say something, but random opining gives no reliable enlightenment.

'Can you not remain in doubt?'

'I don’t know that I have ever tried.'

'You must learn to, if you are to come far with me. It is not hard to do it. In Eschropolis, indeed, it is impossible, for the people who live there have to give an opinion once a week or once a day, or else Mr. Mammon would soon cut off their food. But out here in the country you can walk all day and all the next day with an unanswered question in your head: you need never speak until you have made up your mind.'

There are people who know what they talk about--finding them is the hard part. And there's no good reason why they should have something significant to say each and every morning.

I figure there's a good chance I can learn some things from someone who predicted World War T a few years before the deluge. There are plenty of genuine experts who can explain happenings in their respective fields. Curious and even-handed bloggers can be treasures.

But I have no idea where to look to find a Trump expert. I'll try to ignore what I read about his popularity--especially when it seems probable, since I don't know any of them myself and any priors I have will also be random.

1 comment:

Assistant Village Idiot said...

There is that Chesterton quote of similar meaning at the beginning of The Napoleon of Notting Hill. In Watership Down Captain Holly quotes the Threarah with a similar evaluation of prophets. Being wrong seems to only magnify their credibility.