Thursday, April 09, 2020

Epidemic analysis

In our practice with the small epidemic (there's going to be a big one someday, with the O(30+%) death rates), I'm not sure who is keeping track of what works and what doesn't, and trying to see how to open things back up.

We have "essential services" and "very low risk work." If you're not public-facing, a huge chunk of risk goes away. How can you reduce the rest of the risk? How do you know? Who is studying this?

Take tree-trimmers as an example. What precautions do they need to take? Separate vehicles, spray cleansers on shared tools like ladders, eat lunch apart, liners under the work gloves... Would those be good enough?

Sometime or other the lockdowns have to end, and they will have to end before the disease is completely gone--because it may never completely go away. The sanest way would seem to be staging it--but how do we (and who does) decide who goes first?

UPDATE: Looks like NEC Directory Gary Cohn is starting to think about it.

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