Tuesday, February 07, 2023

If it sounds like something your grandmother would agree with

The psychology study is more likely to be reproducible--be right. "Most intriguingly, they found that papers which received more media attention were less likely to replicate. News outlets tend to favor counterintuitive and eye-catching findings." In other words, probably wrong.

The best field for successful replication was personality studies, at about 50:50, while social psychology or behavioral studies were about twice as likely to be wrong (irreproducible) as right.

I don't recall who coined the "grandmother test" (it sounds like something AVI would say), but it goes like this: If she'd say "I could have told you that!" the study is probably right, and if not, be very skeptical.


Korora said...

And that's even WITHOUT the attitude of "Believe this not because it's true, but for some other reason."

Assistant Village Idiot said...

It long predates me, but I agree with the sentiment.