Saturday, March 07, 2020

Oversight

Measure R passed in LA. "The new policy grants an LASD civilian oversight commission independent authority to subpoena documents or witnesses pertinent to its investigations. Additionally, the referendum’s passage requires that body to draft a plan for reducing the county jail population with alternatives to incarceration."

That sounds relatively benign, unless you've heard about how oversight boards can work in big cities. What is planned for this one?

“We will use it to hold the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department accountable, and we will use it to make sure L.A. County continues to move forward with a care-first/jail-never ethos.”
...

Cullors, who has often been candid about her desire to “dismantle” law enforcement agencies and abolish prisons,

It seems to be an article of faith that "the system" causes crime. Never mind evidence; never mind experience; never mind logic. None of those things matter. The fact that blacks are arrested more often than whites or asians is proof of injustice.

In Chicago there will be a Community Commission for Public Safety and Accountability: "Commission members will be selected based on their expertise in areas such as civil rights, social work, work with immigrant and undocumented communities, and law. Two of the seven commissioners will be between the ages of 18 to 24 and have experienced police misconduct." That last seems very very odd. I'm trying to think of a way this won't be abused.

Qui bono?

What drives this sort of "stop the police?" Self-justification, maybe. A kernel of truth; enough to make the whole thing seem palatable. Once upon a time in the South you couldn't convict a white man for attacking a black man--maybe there's a inchoate sense of collective revenge? Snow jobs? Netflix and Facebook founder's wives kicked \$2M into the campaign to get the LA referendum passed. Maybe they got the English version instead of the Arabic version of the story.

Yes, police misconduct is a real thing. But just as I don't want the police to monitor complaints against themselves, I don't want cop-haters and "social justice" activists doing it either. We've seen both movies--neither turns out well.

Hair of the dog

At a school concert the other day, I saw a number of posters evidently directed at an African-American student event. The one nearest me involved a black family, and bore a slogan inviting us all to build the family and destroy the patriarchy. I wonder who thought that up. If I read the statistics and studies correctly, black children need more fathers willing to take responsibility for their families, not fewer.

What does the slogan-eer think a family is? A fungible collection of interchangeable, role-less bodies?

Friday, March 06, 2020

Science Fiction Culture

"It is impossible to use electric light and wireless and to avail ourselves of modern medical and surgical discoveries, and at the same time to believe in the New Testament world of spirits and miracles. We may think we can manage it in our own lives, but to expect others to do so is to make the Christian faith unintelligible and unacceptable to the modern world." Bultmann, 1961

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." Arthur Clarke

Apparently for Bultmann, "sufficiently advanced" = "I don't understand it."

Anyone who understands the immense effort that goes into that switch bringing light will not mistake it for a miracle. If the knowledgeable one is working in the fields himself, he might even be insulted that you ignore his hard work.

Perhaps the mistake is unsurprising--miracles are done by Someone else, and the light from the ceiling or frozen food in the store is done by someones else--other people who are usually invisible to the lucky consumer.

Are we aware enough to be grateful?

It wouldn't hurt to remind ourselves, and our children, of how much work goes on behind the scenes, and how hard one must work to make things easy.



One side effect of living with so many "pocket miracles" is losing track of what is possible and what isn't.


Science Fiction Culture is a kind of magical thinking, shaped by our attitudes to the engineering marvels that we don't understand. In science fiction anything is possible. Travel faster than light? Upload your brain into a computer? All just a matter of time. I can point you to people who believe this!

The sci-fi/magic universe isn't just "pocket miracles" now, it is a future of more and more. "Whatever you imagine can be someday." There's already a touch of solipsism here--who needs to think about pesky realistic constraints?

If anything is possible, what's to keep us from achieving it now? "If we can put a man on the Moon, we can find a cure for cancer! All we need is the will to commit the resources." It turns out that dreams demand power and money, and if they're fruitless it's just because "You're not doing it right!"

When dreams meet reality, frustration ensues. I don't think it gets better when you can't admit you were wrong.

  • "We can eliminate poverty" Depending on how you define that, "sort of" and "not a snowball's chance."
  • "If the other countries just got to try the democratic/consumer society, they'd all get along." Somebody didn't pay attention in history class. Or current events.
  • "If everybody would become Christians, the world would be perfect and at peace." Jesus said a few things that disparage that premise.

What else is the notion that you can easily change sexes than sci-fi? (Tiresias had to have Hera work a miracle--not something just anybody can arrange.)


UPDATE: About the "invisible people:" when you think of "Top Gun" remember these pictures.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

"At risk"

From April 25, 2018 a pilot program that assists students with academic challenges and allows them to participate in a high school and college-credited state-certified Fire Academy program."

A few months later: September 9, 2018 they arrived and found 17-year-old Mekhi Moss threatening to punch a METRO bus driver. He was riding the bus. ... The teen faces multiple charges, including disorderly conduct, marijuana possession with intent to deliver and felon in possession of a firearm. Felon at age 17--presumably he was during the Fire Academy program too.

And today the report says that being charged with an armed robbery on 21-Jan.

I gather the Fire Academy program didn't help much. He wasn't in the picture with the mayor; I wonder if he had all the tattoos then.

The name turns up in "part time nannies" available in Sun Prairie. Was that a joke on him or by him?

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Movie focus

I was absorbed in my reading on the bus. I felt it turn, and turn, and when I looked away from the kindle I realized I'd lost track of where we were. It wasn't significant--my exit wasn't for another 15 minutes--but it was a sharp reminder that I'm not always attentive. The sketch of a man eyeing an attractive woman walking by and running into a phone pole he didn't notice is funny because it's all too true.

What comes to mind is one of those scenes in the New Zealand movies where there's vast scenery and a troop of nine walking along the ridge. My eyes flick back and forth between the scenery and the actors, and when I concentrate on one the other fades.

Suppose you were making a "first person"/stream-of-consciousness movie, seeing what the protagonist sees and hearing what he hears. You could force the viewpoint with camera focus, and maybe with post-processing tricks to literally fade other things in view. I've seen something like this done when the hero has been drugged or slugged and is slowly gaining consciousness, but that's only for a scene. I wonder if you can do it longer. Finding a balance between single-minded focus and flicking the attention this way and that would be quite a trick.

In clumsy hands this would be unwatchable. Without a good story-line reason for doing it, it would be pretentious. With skill and story-telling reason--it might still be a poor choice.

Somebody is bound to have tried this--probably many somebodies. And I'd bet most of the results aren't any good: in art "90% of everything is junk". Has this approach to forcing the viewer's attention ever worked?

Monday, March 02, 2020

Snapshots and browsing security

Your browsing session carries along with it quite a bit of information--not just cookies. I'm told that even without cookies there's often enough info to almost uniquely identify your computer/browser combo.

There are supposed to be ways around that with Virtual Private Networks and anonymizers and what-not, assuming you trust them. I'll look into that some other time.

Another, perhaps more urgent, problem with browsing is that bad actors out there are happy to infect your computer with whatever they can load on. Anti-virus software can help, but last time I checked none of them were 100% effective.

I decided to experiment with virtual machines.

Maybe containers would be a more lightweight way to go. I'll look into that later. I figured virtual machines would be easier to offer step-by-step instructions for.

The platform is a 5-year-old Macbook I use but don't own: 16GB and an SSD. That SSD would probably be the biggest difference when comparing to some other platform.

I installed VirtualBox.

After starting VirtualBox and asking to create a new virtual machine, I installed Windows 10. And then installed the "extension pack" for VirtualBox into Windows 10. (I had to go back and add a "Virtual DVD drive" and then use the menu to point that at the extension pack's .iso file to get it to load) I asked that the clipboard be importable from the main OS to the client, but not vice versa. If you allow the VM to mount any part of the host's filesystem, a malicious worm may write there without your knowledge--so only mount scratch areas you don't care about.

In Windows 10, I installed firefox as the browser because it was familiar. I manually asked for the most recent Windows 10 updates. Then I started the browser.

Then I "took a snapshot;" both filesystem and memory at the same time.

That's a clever trick used with some filesystems (e.g. Plan9 and ZFS) and pretty much all virtual machine managers. At first there's no change, the snapshot is just like the original filesystem. But if I change a block of data, the old data in the snapshot does NOT change. What changes is the pointer: it points to the new data stored elsewhere. If you delete a file, the snapshot file is still there in the old area, but in the current system there's no pointer to it anymore.

You can tell the virtual machine manager to "revert" the virtual machine to the old snapshot, and it will chuck all the new stuff and return it to the old state.

So, suppose I need to look up repair manuals for a washing machine. Those sites are notoriously infected; as bad as recipe sites. I connect to a site that promises me a parts list, but instead it uploads a javascript that rewrites some important little files in my area.

At the end of the session, I have an infected machine, that may be phoning home as I sit back and reach for the peanut jar.

I log out and shut down the virtual machine. It isn't running, but is still infected.

I open the VirtualBox menu for the virtual machine and "revert to snapshot." It asks if I want to make a snapshot of the new version. No, I don't.

The system is reverted to the state of the original snapshot.

Now if I restart the virtual machine, it comes back to the state it was in at snapshot time--open browser and all.

Bottom line: With a Windows 10 VM and SSD for the host, it takes about 15 seconds to open and be ready.

I should play around with some other, lighter-weight, operating systems, to see if I can cut down that 15 seconds to something more snappy. I figure the less data it has to load from disk, the faster it will load.

Side effects: Any form fill-ins that weren't set up with the snapshot will be lost when you revert. Any updates to the OS that happen while you are browsing will be lost on reversion. That latter bit is important: every few weeks you will want to start a snapshot, install updates, create a new snapshot, and merge the old one away.

I tried watching YouTube videos: sound and movement were slightly and annoyingly out of sync.

UPDATE: Mint loads in about half the time.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Haiku month

February has been "Write a haiku a day" month. Why not?

I did it: at least one per day. I picked a topic: archaeology, in honor of the Time Team videos my wife has been watching. (I wanted to be an archeologist when I was 7. And a paleontologist. And maybe a fireman. I've always maintained an interest.)

There are 6 pages worth; some trying for the spirit of the form and others "just following the form."

It was a fun exercise. But the result is an offense against the spirit of the haiku--because it is 6 pages worth.

I should have foreseen that.

UPDATE: Given the underwhelming popular demand:

The careless and slobs
Left great archaeology.
Tidy people don't.

Priestess of Mehyet
Makes a hardened dry grimace
In a library

Thursday, February 27, 2020

My Diary North and South wrapup

I used this as bus reading, so it took a little longer than usual. BTW, 4 pages in that are unreadably blurry. And the ocr scan is nightmarish. The book's pages were a little browned and spotted, and the ocr software frequently went nuts.

Read My Diary North and South for a more-or-less neutral take on the run-up to and beginnings of the Civil War.

Russell is not terribly fond of Americans in general, or American cities in general, or American attitudes in general, though he finds a number of pleasant people and places anyhow. For that matter, you or I probably wouldn't care for the streets in Washington DC at the time--nor those of London.

The newspapers of that day were even greater fabulists than those of today, and every bit as partisan. Wild boasting by officials and common citizens alike ("England will come crawling to our support; cotton is king!" "We can whip the Sesseshers and England and France as well if they get in our way!") tried Russell's patience.

The next-to-the-last straw was his honest report of the retreat from Bull Run. As the (English) bearer of bad news he was blamed for it as though he had caused it. And, though the generals didn't mind his traveling with the army, in the end as the war progressed, he was unable to get permission from the high-ups, and gave up and went home. He was there as a war correspondent, not for amusement.

In the South he observed that, at least publicly, everyone was vehemently for secession, and despised the North and especially New Englanders. The New York elite was, at least until Fort Sumter was shelled, in support of anything that that opposed the hated Republicans (some things don't change much, do they?). He didn't seem to have much conversation with lower classes in either region. He doesn't dwell on it much, but he saw egregious favoritism in army supply, and in which officers got promoted and why. He was not impressed with McClellan, or with the Union armies he saw.

Interestingly, in both North and South, women were more strongly partisan than the men.

He touched on the violence of Southern society, and prevalence of duels (at least one Northern officer died in a duel, so it wasn't limited to the South). I've heard "an armed society is a polite society," but I'm not quite sure about that. If you restrict "society" to a class, perhaps it is. Or perhaps if the society stays relatively sober, it might be.

He arrived after passions were already flaring. He watched as the anger grew after Sumter. I wonder if some of that, in the mouths of former Northern supporters of secession, was from a sense of betrayal.

I think it useful to read of a time when hatreds were even worse than now.

And, given those hatreds, I think we can be grateful for men who were magnanimous in victory, and magnanimous in defeat.

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Preservation

When I was about 11 or so, I was given an illustrated (with color photos of the artifacts!) novel about Egypt, which followed the transformation of a young "grave robber" into a young archaelogist. Though it probably wasn't great literature, I liked it.

I'm not sure I'd re-read it if I found it again, but the fact that it was part of my life for a while and I haven't a clue where it is or what the title or author was, can feel like an itch.

"It was part of your life, why don't you still have it?"

On the sofa is a children's book, "Into the Mummy's Tomb," that reminded me of that itch, and of the irony of it. The pharoah's thought they were gods, and tried to take all the treasures of their lives with them.

But only God, for whom all time is now, can preserve all our treasures. We use them up or lose them, and can't even step into the same stream twice for a treasured experience. The second kiss doesn't have the same surprise as the first one: better or worse, it's different.

The bookshelves, despite some culling, still have some things that I enjoyed once. I mustn't try to be pharaoh. I read something about "the one who tries to save his life will lose it." Souvenirs can clog as well as encourage.

Cat music

Should vets play "cat music" when they want to handle cats?

Yours truly believes the devil is in the details (were the handlers listening too?), but if you want to see the research, the paper is here.

Snowdon and Teie recently concluded that cats listening to music in their homes prefer music that was specially made with cat vocalizations, with preferred tempos and with normal vocal frequencies as the primary considerations. Cats responded to music positively by orienting and approaching speakers playing cat music more often and quicker than to speakers playing classical music. The cat music played contained melodic lines based on affiliative vocalizations and rewarding sounds. These melodies are interpreted as more likely to be effective if the goal is to calm an agitated cat. The thought and musical design behind composing cat-specific music was based on the idea that the development of the emotional centers in the brain of the cat occur shortly after birth, during the nursing stage. Because purring and suckling sounds are common in this developmental stage, these sounds are layered into tempos and frequencies used in feline vocalization to create cat specific music.

And yes, the students were in the room for part of the "treatment"

After that, two veterinary students proficient in physical examination and venipuncture and trained in the study’s methodology, performed full physical examinations, including turgor test, mucous membrane examination, capillary refill time, oral examination, body condition assessment, abdominal palpation, pulse and heart rate, respiratory rate, cardiopulmonary auscultation and rectal temperature, all while the auditory stimuli continued.

And blood tests for stress didn't show any effect from different types of music.

And--they used 25 cats. Look at the overlap... (UPDATE: The image is now missing)


Want to have a listen? There's a snippet on this page. I checked YouTube, and a random sampling of "cat music" doesn't sound a lot like that, it's more human-soothing. Though I suppose if you are hyper, your cat(s) might pick up on that.

My take? "Cat music" sounds like it might be real, and it probably doesn't hurt at the vets, but getting hoisted and jabbed by strangers is always going to be stressful.

Monday, February 24, 2020

You Asked For It

Somebody called it the YouTube of the 50's. We watched it a time or two in "reruns" in Liberia. This was the first one that came up in a search--it was new to me, and a seriously mixed bag. It's good to remember that sometimes there are good reasons that some things aren't made anymore. Although-- quite a bit of YouTube (including professional performers' work) is in execrable taste too, so there's no evidence for moral improvement and uplift.

People wrote in to ask for a wrestling chimp, Ivory Joe Hunter's TV debut, a magician demonstrating card shark tricks, a William Tell shot, and a blackface song with one of the Jolsons.

I remember one episode which demonstrated the power of human temperature management through sweating. A man and a pan of brownie batter went into an oven (wooden seats for the man) for 15 minutes at (I don't remember) degrees. The brownies came out at least superficially cooked, and the man came out a bit dehydrated but OK.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

"mansplaining"

Althouse has a post up on the "subject." I don't know if this approach is strictly relevant, but in case you aren't familiar with the story...

Laura Fermi wrote:

Leo Szilard stayed several years with the phage group between two periods of intense political activity. Before revealing his interest in the phage, Szilard had visited Luria's laboratory at the University of Indiana. 'Doctor Szilard, I don't know how much to explain,' said Luria, embarrassed by the presence of the great nuclear physicist. 'I don't know what to assume ...' 'You may assume,' Szilard replied promptly, 'infinite ignorance and unlimited intelligence.'

Slogans

A slogan has to be pithy. Quite a few have a bit of Motte and bailey to go along, and once that hook is set, the rest of attitude should come along.

I posted a piece on deniability a while back, looking at "Black Lives Matter "as much as anyone else's""(*) and "We should have picked out own cotton "instead of bringing in slaves"" as examples. They seem undeniable statements (at least to a modern American), but the subtexts that come along with them, and the political attitudes that come with the subtexts, are other things entirely.

Another slogan came to mind recently: "God is still speaking." This means something within a Christian context--it isn't aimed at other religions. It seems straightforward enough--God is still calling, still disclosing to each individual what others may have already heard. It isn't simple to deny this.

The subtext is "God is revealing new things to us." That's a lot more controversial. Some with inadequate knowledge of history will argue that "Christianity used to approve of slavery; now it doesn't--see, God has revealed something new!" And it is true that the Western churches (not excluding Catholics--remember the filioque!) have indulged in some innovations.

But if you go along with that, the attitude that comes with it is (at least today): "The voice of fashion is the voice of God." I'm sorry if that seems unkind, but the way I've seen people "evolve" does not at all suggest careful thought or Divine revelation. On the contrary; oversimplifications and straw men abound, and herds rather than pilgrims.

Another (used to veto adding "and God" to a phrase about "Christ our Savior"!) is "Unity, not uniformity." That seems nice enough--so long as you're talking about non-essentials. The subtext is "Your concerns are inconsequential."

The unasked question is "In what sphere is this unity to be? If we're not just a social club, who are we worshiping?"

From the more conservative side, I can't think of many such slogans--some name-calling, but not slogans. I'm probably forgetting something.

Of course there are the aspirational slogans "Each one win one" or "Fifty-four forty or fight," where there's not a lot of hidden subtext ("Learn to evangelize!" or "We want that land!").

How about "No king but Jesus!" from the Revolutionary War? Some of that was from people who were serious about not wanting kings (1 Samuel 8). Maybe part of the support from that came from people whose religion might be forbidden if the king revoked their charter. But I'd bet a lot came from people who wanted to sound holier than they were.


(*) I haven't heard much from BLM in our area recently--possibly because the local organization wound up headed by intersectional types, who probably aren't quite as popular with the rank and file.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

For all your werewolf-defense needs

Silver bullets.

If you want to take up a career as a Lone Ranger you need these. And a loyal sidekick, though those aren't available through this vendor.

Sighting-in might be a little pricey, though if you just use them as calling cards you probably wouldn't have to fire any.

No, I'm not on their mailing list--this link was circulating

Friday, February 21, 2020

Hype

How particle physics could prevent financial fraud
Most transactions, or collisions, show no anomalies. But when they do, this may lead to new ground-breaking insights for both economists and physicists.

>Hence this new collaboration plans to combat fluctuations in markets caused by anomalies, by combining the unique commodity and financial market data and understanding from CORMEC and WUR with CERN’s ROOT data analysis expertise and techniques.

Forgive me for snickering.

The story isn't about any breakthrough--just the announcement of a research partnership. Maybe they'll come up with something useful, but I'd bet on more false positives than detections of nefarious activity. (How do you detect insider trading?)

ROOT is a kitchen-sink tool. It allows you to structure and manipulate your data, manage I/O, and provides huge number of tools for fitting, analysis, plotting, and various other goodies as well. About a decade ago they did a static analysis of the code and found all sorts of problems that I hope they've fixed. If you restricted yourself to the high level routines you were pretty much OK, but if you had something more complex (e.g. an event display, or low level I/O), it was an uphill climb to migrate to new versions of ROOT. Been there, done that.

For "finding anomalies," though, it is far from the only framework available--and the critical bit isn't the building blocks but the structure you build with it.

I used parts of ROOT in building a data acquisition system--I needed to fit for the center of a laser beam. I used different parts of it to create a tool for studying data provided in text format--a fancier version of TOPDRAWER. (All the cool kids are using jupyter these days, but there's a lot of overhead getting it started. I like lightweight and quick.) Some of the analyses were physics, some were sysadmin stuff (which systems are causing grief when), and I used it for looking at baseball statistics too.

More interesting would be a story about who was teaming up with the econ people, and which directions they were going to take--boosted decision tree, maybe?

Thursday, February 20, 2020

A British reporter in the South during the Civil War

From My Diary North and South
We visited an old negro, called "Boatswain," who lives with his old wife in a wooden hut close by the margin of the Mississippi. His business is to go to Donaldsonville for letters, or meat, or ice for the house--a tough row for the withered old man. He is an African born, and he just remembers being carried on board ship and taken to some big city before he came upon the plantation.

"Do you remember nothing of the country you came from, Boatswain?" "Yes, sir. Jist remember trees and sweet things my mother gave me, and much hot sand I put my feet in, and big leaves that we play with -- all us little children -- plenty to eat, and big birds and shells." "Would you like to go back, Boatswain?" "What for, sir? no one know old Boatswain there. My old missus Sally inside." "Are you quite happy, Boatswain?" "I'm getting very old, massa. Massa Burnside very good to Boatswain, but who care for such a dam old nigger? Golla Mighty gave me fourteen children, but he took them all away again from Sally and me. No budy care much for dam old nigger like me."

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Helmets old and new

Shock wave effects on the brain are getting more attention these past few years, which may be why some Duke University researchers thought to compare WW-I helmets with a modern one.

The details (and more graphs and pictures) are here.

Executive summary: they tested the "shell burst above the head" (as would have happened a bit more frequently for trench tenants) using a shock wave generator (pressurized helium bursting a membrane) and measured pressures in various places in the dummy's "head." The best was an old French helmet with a metal ridge down the middle, showing slightly lower pressures than even the modern Advanced Combat Helmet.

Ah, but. The differences weren't huge (they didn't plot error bars, but the scatter of points is telling), the configuration was very specific (they didn't look at shocks from the side, as you'd get with IEDs), and the bottom line was that anything was far better than nothing. The plot below is the most dramatic result--other sensor positions seem less so.



UPDATE: The army says the study is faulty, mostly for the same reasons I did--but also something I hadn't realized: "Inside five meters is well inside the kill range of that artillery shell," DiLalla said. "It's not even in range where the protective equipment could actually do something."

Evildoers and art

Over at First Things, Peter Hitchens has an essay about "Evildoers and their art." He cites Polanski and an artist I'd never heard of: Gill. It's worth a read.

Things aren't perfectly cut and dried here. On the one extreme, would you go to, much less pay to see, an exhibition of Hitler's paintings? And if he were still alive and benefiting from the show--no way. On the other hand, we're all sinners--do you want to avoid all human art?

I'm told Renaissance painter's models were usually prostitutes with whom the painters were familiar. If you told me they were abused I'd not be greatly astonished. From another discipline, Francois Villon was plausibly charged with murder. Ancient misdemeanors don't bother us much, though. Maybe "but that was in another country, and besides, the wench is dead" governs.

More recent ne'er do wells--maybe not so much.

I was never a huge Marion Zimmer Bradley fan (I know, there's no accounting for taste), but someone who had been said that after the abuse revelations, certain details in Bradley's fiction now read completely differently, and she could no longer enjoy the work. I can think of one or two authors whose work reads more like self-justification now that I know more about them. (Maybe I should avoid learning about the authors?)

The more the artist's offense is part of his work, the easier you find it to avoid for cause. But in Hitchens' essay above, one of the things the daughter-molesting Gill made was typefonts--which are about as abstract an art form as they come. Contrast with Bradley, for example.

Another factor in approaching an artist's work is to what extent you want to immerse yourself in it. There are a number of fine paintings and sculptures in the art museum that my wife and I can appreciate together, but which she would strenuously object to in our living room. Once in a while is fine, but a diet of such things?

I had trouble getting exercised about Weinstein. He's clearly a creep, abusing his ability to make or ruin careers, and if he ends up paying his fortune out in reparations, I will not be shedding any tears. But who didn't know this kind of extortion was the rule in Hollywood?

Maybe one thing that keeps me from anger is distance. This involves nobody I know, and the odds are excellent that I haven't seen any of his movies. It's a similar kind of distance to that I have to Villon.

If I were induced to be angry about every injustice--if everything were present and there was no distance in my life--aside from being miserable I'd be spread too thin and useless. And easily manipulated.

And when it comes to vile artists (or vile scientists, or vile presidents) I'm going to have to make judgment calls on the fly, without benefit of a clear framework. That's apt to bias decisions in favor of what I happen to like and what doesn't gore my oxen. But notice that the "purists" are every bit as selective in who they accuse--I don't think professing an absolute rule is going to preserve me from potential bias.

Monday, February 17, 2020

Face masks

I am informed that ordinary face masks are of little use against the coronavirus. The pores are too large; the masks too leaky, and they do not stand off from the nose and mouth enough.

Nevertheless, I see some potential value in them.

They remind you not to touch your face.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Brothers 4

A couple of days ago a song I remembered from long ago opened a radio ad for a concert by The Brothers Four (today, BTW). They can't still be around, can they?

The group has had various members, but Bob Flick still seems to be playing--after 61 years!

Wow.

Is it the same group?

If they sing the same songs in the same ways, with the same sound, I suppose they are the same--in a kind of utilitarian way. They have the legal imprimatur, which a tribute group that sounded the same wouldn't, but it is circular to rely on legal details to decide the question.

But... if you define the group in terms of what they do, the same people experimenting with new genres would be a different group. That seems silly.

If musicians are interchangeable, replacing one with another might mean the group remains the same. It isn't like a marriage. However, the musicians I've known don't think of themselves as interchangeable. And what do you get if the group disbands, and then reforms into two, both claiming the same name (as happens)?

I don't want to go all Heraclitus with this, but after so long it seemed a reasonable question.

I liked them then; probably still would. I'm listening to Manon at home.

FWIW: I liked the Kingston Trio too. "The Kingston Trio continues to tour as of 2020 with musicians who licensed the name and trademark in 2017."

Click bait

What it's like to be Democrat in Trump Country ... Apparently there aren't a lot of problems living in Fulton, except that your candidates didn't win. The article suggests that "many Fulton County residents traditionally registered as Democrats to gain and keep state jobs." One interviewee suspects he lost his job because of politics, but no evidence is proffered.

I know something about living in a strongly leftist area; I was curious if the mirror image was similar. Who knows? Not I, after reading the article.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Crannog detail

I watched a Time Team episode in which they "excavate" a crannog.

That's a small artificial island, close to shore, with typically a securable "causeway." Larger ones might be for several families, but most were smaller. Wood and stones and packed earth could make a fairly solid place to live.

Life on a small island could be convenient if you and your neighbors traveled by boat a lot. Drinking water is right there. Food you can grow on land and store, or fish for. Wood--presumably the forests were more extensive then.

Storms would be a lot more troublesome than on land, though.

And sewage--oops. Unless there's a good current to move stuff away from your home, you have a problem. Wind-driven currents might help save your health, provided you remembered to dump waste downstream.

I wonder what the currents are like around the craggnogs? I'd guess the builders were smart enough to take note of that detail, but I'd also guess that if current patterns changed they'd not abandon all that effort until it got a reputation as an unlucky home. Or until the extra security of life on the lake didn't matter so much.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

DAMA explanation?

You may have heard of the DAMA dark matter search experiment. In the Grand Sasso lab they put 100kg of extremely pure scintillator, and looked for annual variations in the rate of signals.

The basic idea is: assume the dark matter in the galaxy is more or less like a fog that the orbiting stars sweep through. We know the direction our Sun is going, and we know the Earth's orbit. At one point in the orbit we're heading in the same direction as the Sun's motion, and at the opposite point we're heading away. Dark matter particles scattering off nuclei when we're going faster should involve a bigger kick than those when we're going slower--and that bigger kick should appear as more light. (Of course, if the dark matter is orbiting the galactic center at about the same speed as the Sun, you won't see much energy from the collisions--but you might still see a little variation.)

So, if on the average they see more light (energy deposited) at the times of the year when the Earth is moving faster wrt the galactic center, that might be evidence for dark matter.

They claim to see that. They've been more than a little reluctant to show their raw data, though, and the backgrounds must be huge (cosmic rays, radioactivity in the rock, residual impurities, etc).

The plots look great though. The problem is that they suggest interaction rates so high that other experiments should be able to see it too--and they don't.

There's an interesting paper from INFN (Buttazzo et al) that suggests that the annual variation (this story has some nice explanatory plots) is an artifact of the way they analyze their data. The background rate is too high to see anything clearly, so they average the background year by year, subtract that from the data on a every-few-months binning, and accumulate those residuals for a bunch of different years.

That seems OK, but what happens if the background rate grows with time? (e.g. impurities on the surface of the crystals migrate into the bulk volume, or helium migrating into the phototubes causing more after-pulsing)

Answer: you get residuals that look like a sawtooth: negative at the start of the reference period and positive at the end. If you use the DAMA start and end points and fit with a sinusoid, you get a peak at about the same place DAMA does.

Since we've never seen their raw data, or their analysis chain in any detail, we've no idea whether their background rate does grow over time.

There should be a simple check that lets them keep their data secret--use different start and end reference months, or accumulate over 2 years instead of 1 (you'll get worse statistics that way, but the sawtooth would then have a period of 2 years instead of 1. If the sinusoid remained with a period of 1 year and the same peak, even if it looked muddier than it does now, they might have something. If it had a 2-year variation (in the second case) or the peak appeared in a different month (for the first cross-check), they have zip.

I look forward to hearing what DAMA has to say.

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Military hardware

Years ago I had it carefully explained to me that the most important things about military hardware were not superior quality or efficiency, but reliability, ruggedness, and ease of repair in the field. You wouldn't repair the jet's engine, but yank it and stuff a new one in to get the thing back in the air quickly. The sine qua non--can you use it for its job? If not, you don't really have it. By that rule our navy is quite a bit smaller than we say it is.

Cheaper things than jets--jeeps, guns, radios--were supposed to be easy to get back in working order while in the field.

I was never in the military, much less in combat, but the priority makes sense to me--even when you have to pay a premium for the product as a result.

It seems that principle is no longer a priority: "Increasingly, Captain Ekman argues, the Department of Defense is signing procurement contracts for equipment from generators to trucks to MRAPs that not only cover the purchase of the vehicle but strict maintenance regimens as well. These contracts often place restrictions on the maintenance of the equipment, requiring manufacturer-affiliated contractors to perform maintenance and repair instead of enlisted Soldiers."

Apparently we have no "right to repair" important chunks of gear. I'm trying to imagine the "return-to-factory." Or will Oshkosh field its own armed repair teams? I remember some sci-fi positing that corporations would field their own armies. This wasn't the way they described it.

Probably rules about repairs and warranties get waived in combat zones. But in the meantime our mechanics have no experience on the equipment. They'd be learning on the fly.

If the Pentagon decides to change course and force a "right to repair" in the contracts, maybe some of the rest of us can get it too--a lot of farmers are unhappy with John Deere.

Conspiracies

I've heard the Iowa debacle blamed on the incompetence of the app writers, and of whoever failed to test the system, and of whoever chose this team (selected for party loyalty, perhaps?). I've heard it blamed on malfeasance of Party Members trying to cover up their favorites' poor showings.

New Hampshire is now voting, and will be effectively voting first in the nation--as they used to have the honor of doing. We wonders, aye, we wonders.

Saturday, February 08, 2020

AOFB

Who remembers Mad Mike? The former mercenary died Sunday at the age of 100, in a "care facility" in South Africa. He'd been released from prison by amnesty in 1985

I have to admit I knew little of him beyond the bizarre Seychelles fiasco, but the Congo story of the Wild Geese is worth reading. The full story puts him and his men's crimes in better perspective. Read it.

He hated communism. I wonder whether he expressed his opinions much about the new South Africa. He was in France researching books on (e.g.) the Cathars for about 20 years up to 2009, so he wasn't around for a lot of the transition. He was about 90 when he came back home--and maybe not as fiery as he used to be.

“The mystique is unexplainable — the mystique about soldiering with strong men,” he told The Post in 1978. “It’s something more than just soldiering for money. The moment of truth comes at 3 a.m. in a hole. Your buddy’s been killed or wounded, and no money can compensate . . . But there’s an indescribable exhilaration being part of a well-disciplined unit that holds its position.”

I'm not sure the Ancient Order of Froth Blowers was exactly "well-disciplined," though.

Attention to detail

Thousands of little engineering details sit just behind the facades of our gear. You don't notice them unless they're missing.

When you heat a cup of water or re-heat the coffee, you punch the button for 1 minute or 30 seconds. Did you notice that despite the rotation of the turntable while the microwave runs, the handle of the cup is pretty much in the same position as when you put it in?

There's a ten second rotation period on the turntables I've checked. A nice little detail--my thanks to whoever figured that one out.

Friday, February 07, 2020

Uncertainty

The news circulated today that the UW System's security group proposed (deadline for comments was also today) that there be an annual inventory of software assets and IT hardware assets, including such things as IP addresses and associated MAC addresses. Not that all of our network hardware has a MAC address: in particular the readout boards that are currently buried in ice at the South Pole. I can sort of see a relevance, though "university-owned" software is kind of ambiguous. For example, security wants to know if you're running a vulnerable version of apache (I think they all are, but for some versions the vulnerabilities are known.). It constitutes a possible weakness for everything on that subnet.

I'm not quite so sure about the hardware. Why do they care where it is? Property control might care, of course, but this was supposed to be related to cybersecurity. I suppose they've made common cause for a gigantic Database Of Everything the Universities lay claim to. (Fortunately I haven't heard them claim that "Our people are our greatest assets." So no inventory stickers for me. Yet.)

Property management no doubt would love to have everything documented down to the last chassis screw in the last drawer, and as long as it is our time they're spending they probably don't care about expense. Sure there are some sticky-fingered sorts: students who make a grab for something unattended, custodial who snarf a laptop (not realizing that it was being monitored and that its disappearance from the network could be pinpointed to a time the custodian was there!), and staff who regard equipment and office supplies as perks of the job. But we don't have anything like the loss levels of Walmart or stores in San Francisco. In our group I think we lose more to breakage than "misappropriation."

How much are you willing to spend to identify the residuum of losses? I strongly suspect there's an inverse relationship between cost and "loss uncertainty"--probably worse than linearly inverse, since there could be loss or wastage in the inventorying process too. On a national scale, nobody doubts that there's some welfare fraud, but the cost of trying to reduce it to 0 is probably orders of magnitude higher than the loss. (Send out investigators to verify every applicant?)

Hmm. (Cost of monitoring) * (Uncertainty in inventory) >= constant ?

It's probably not universal enough--the constant would depend on the industry. For UW it's probably small, for the military large (and really large in wartime), for aid to Ukraine or Puerto Rico pretty high too. For Walmart, in between.

Thursday, February 06, 2020

My diary North and South

By William Howard Russell. I haven't read much of it yet. I was pointed to it by Sgt Mom. He seems to have employed a wicked sense of humor as he reported on the USA during the Civil War.

"Had the pages been literally transcribed, without omitting a word, the fate of one whose task it was to sift the true from the false and to avoid error in statements of fact, in a country remarkable for the extraordinary fertility with which the unreal is produced, would have excited much commiseration;"

Some things haven't changed much.

...

"The swarming communities and happy homes of the New England States -- the most complete exhibition of the best results of the American system -- it was denied me to witness; but if I was deprived of the gratification of worshiping the frigid intellectualism of Boston, I saw the effects in the field, among the men I met, of the teachings and theories of the political, moral and religious professors, who are the chiefs of that universal Yankee nation, as they delight to call themselves, and there recognized the radical differences which must sever them forever from a true union with the Southern States."

I think some of us have a slightly different take on this description than he may have intended.

You can find it online.

Tuesday, February 04, 2020

Waste products

When bacteria decompose sugars they leave some toxins behind--ethyl alcohol being the most famous.

Bacteria are developing to devour plastics. What do they leave behind?

For the PET family, Ideonella sakaiensis is here. Some details are here. The answer seems to be that different colonies of bacteria can eat most stuff all the way down to CO2 and water, but some intermediate compounds are terephthalic acid and ethylene glycol. At least the former isn't very toxic, and since it is solid at room temperatures won't migrate far.

Maybe plastic mines aren't such a wild idea, though purification seems like it would be hard. I don't think I want to be downstream of the ethylene glycol though.

Monday, February 03, 2020

Centrifugal rocketry

This story about a "centrifuge" for launching rockets seems not to be an April Fools joke. The idea is to spin a rocket (and counterweight, of course) in a vacuum centrifuge with arms 100m long until they reach about 30 revs/second, and then let go the rocket and counterweight--opening the vacuum doors at the same time. The rocket starts off with O(3000m/sec) speed, which gives it a good start and means it doesn't need nearly as much fuel. That sounds nice. Sort of.

Of course the G-forces are about 10,000G. Your support arms are going to stretch. The rocket will presumably sit in a drop-away cradle to keep it from breaking to bits. I imagine the rocket nozzle would be squashed or smashed unless the cradle somehow supported it too.

When the newly released system hits air like a brick wall, what sorts of turbulence will it get, and how badly will it get knocked about? And the air will hit those spinning arms pretty hard once it gets inside the chamber.

Let's see. I want the rocket to go up. That means the counterweight has to be released down, so you need a tunnel--and a pretty deep one--to let the counterweight fly far enough away that when it hits the side of the tunnel and skitters in a different direction, the back-spray doesn't injure anything. I think that problem is solvable, albeit with the odd re-digging of the bending tunnel.

I don't want to think of what a liquid fuel rocket (think of all the tiny valves!) would look like after getting squashed by 10,000G sideways (not the direction rockets are usually required to be strong in), and I would want to be far away from a solid fuel rocket at release time. Or during spin-up, for that matter.

And I'm not sure how you'd release the thing--maybe explosive bolts? I don't think a magnetic system would hold, and if you have metal to metal you might get cold spot-welding and an unpredictable release.

One comment I saw suggested that this could be a weapon. I don't see how it would be useful. If you spin it up and release solid projectiles, they'll land pretty hard--but you have a relatively slow rate of fire and a known and fixed position you're firing from. And uncertainties in the initial direction thanks to eddies in the air outside will make tiny changes in the projectile's trajectory which would be magnified into big misses at long range. The "rods from God" start out with little interference, and would only hit large resistance as they near the target: exactly the opposite.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Computer hacking

Hacking that saved the Apollo 14 mission.

Stuck bits are bad things. Stuck bits that are the "Abort" button are very bad things. Stuck bits that are the "Abort" button command that are intermittent are even worse. (Best guess is a solder blob was floating around inside the button contact.)

Read about how they fixed it, with a software hack.

BTW, the radar flaked out too, which also made landing problematic: "Using Mark 1 Eyeballs to accurately judge altitude and velocity during a lunar landing is not realistic given the sharply limited amount of fuel the LM carried."

Mississippi indian population

Near Cahokia, researchers looked through mud cores to find evidence of human feces in the area. They conclude that although the population around Cahokia Mounds never got back to its AD 1100 levels, there was a rebuilding of the population around 1600-1700. Since there weren't a lot Europeans in the area at the time, that was AmerIndian.

Eyeballing the plot suggests that the population in the area--not necessarily the Mounds proper (in fact probably not)--reached a density a bit over half that during the Mounds era. There might be some biases in my estimates here--the samples were taken from the lake, and it might be that the Mounds' sewage was mostly routed to the river. That would make the relative population estimate less. Or the mix of activities between 1400 and 1800 might have changed to more agricultural and lake-based, which might change the fecal impact on the lake without a population increase.

In any event, "This is significant because researchers have previously suggested that indigenous populations were in decline during this period from Old World diseases that spread across North America in advance of European colonists."

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Epicycles

Lubos Motl approved of and linked to this video about particle physics, s-matrix scattering, and a mention of string theory. You may have to back up and re-watch a few bits.

One of the bits describes the use of Feynman diagrams: Adding up all the various sub-processes that contribute to an overall interaction of some kind. A and B interact somehow to produce C and D, and all sorts of things can happen in the middle.

Yep, those are only a few. (See the video)

Each one of the diagrams represents a contribution that requires a messy integral to solve. With luck, the coupling at each connection is small, and the more and more complicated diagrams contribute less and less, so that you can reach "good enough" without too much pain. Without luck--and QCD doesn't have it--they can get bigger.

This formalism works beautifully for quantum electrodynamics.

The situation reminds me very strongly of epicycles. They work. "There is no bilaterally-symmetrical, nor eccentrically-periodic curve used in any branch of astrophysics or observational astronomy which could not be smoothly plotted as the resultant motion of a point turning within a constellation of epicycles, finite in number, revolving around a fixed deferent."

For Ptolemy's work he only needed to work with a few terms. But the epicycles don't show what's going on nearly as well as ellipses around the Sun. Of course the planetary interactions make our orbital calculations more complex than anything Ptolemy ever attempted, but to land probes we need way better precision than anything he ever attempted.

Lubos and O'Dowd think string theory is the tool we need to wrap up an infinite series of diagrams into a simple form: epicycles turn into universal gravitation and ellipses. I hope so, but I'm not sanguine about progress, given the lack of it so far, and the way supersymmetry is bound up with it. Supersymmetry itself seems rather epicyclic too: it lets you cancel out some divergences when trying to sum terms in perturbation theory. There's that business of adding up lots of finer and finer terms again.

95 theses

Everybody knows about the 95 theses, but for some reason I'd never read more than a sampling of them. They're short: have a look for yourself.

From what I've read, even the oddest sounding ones are based on something that was really happening at the time. The official doctrine might have claimed the contrary, but the peddlers were using the "money clinks, soul flies out of purgatory" spiel.

Some of them are listed separately but are clearly clauses of a single claim.

Some are clearly not quite right: "Christians are to be taught that the pope, in granting indulgences, needs and thus desires their devout prayer more than their money." Given what this (and previous popes) were like ("Let us enjoy the papacy since God has given it to us"), that is most kindly described as wishful thinking. Luther's later description of the pope as anti-Christ was perhaps a bit abusive, but not without some warrant.

Others read a little strangely, such as #93.

Overall, I'm not sure how many of these would be found objectionable by modern Catholic theologians. OTOH, Quite a few species of Protestants would object to something like #7: "God remits guilt to no one unless at the same time he humbles him in all things and makes him submissive to the vicar, the priest."

Probably if the papacy of the era had not been so deeply invested in claiming "All authority has been given to Me in heaven and on earth" for themselves, the whole quarrel would have evaporated without a trace. Of course the indulgence racket wouldn't have gotten going in the first place if the papacy had been less over-reaching, so maybe that's a tautology.

Monday, January 27, 2020

"It takes a village"

Never mind that the original was something like "It takes a village to make a wedding." Go with the modified version a bit.

The village doesn't just supply "support." It supplies roles and norms: You don't get that support unless other people abide by those norms. and play those roles. They'll apply to you too. The village will demand things of you.

The politicians want money and adulation, of course, but the village wants you to do particular things. You're a father? Get out there and do the work to take care of your family. If you spend your time drinking palm wine, you get no respect, and not much in the way of assistance.

The roles can be constraining, no question.

But, if you're not clever or adventurous enough to make your own way, those roles also liberate you from futility. You do X. Maybe you don't like it all that much, but it gives you a way to contribute, and feeling useless corrodes the soul.

I've met quite a few people who would have lived happier lives if someone in their lives had said: "Go do X. And then Y. And follow this example." And I don't mean their peers--when you're young your cohort is as inexperienced and unwise as you are, and if they're the only ones you learn from you won't be a wise adult.

I'm not saying that we need to appoint some directors to tell everyone on the low half of the bell curve what to do. That doesn't work out well for anybody. But somehow or another inherited/traditional wisdom needs to get passed on. For a lot of us that means learning some roles.

And by roles, I don't mean Tinder swipes. That may be a face-saving way of proposing interest or rejecting it, but it's impersonal. It isn't a social role.

But are roles what we want--even when they obviously work? Are we willing to want them--and not just for other people?

Sunday, January 26, 2020

They do it better

Here in Wisconsin we have corn mazes in the fall. In Japan, on the other hand... True, their artwork isn't interactive, but it beats crop circles.

They use different colors of rice plant to get different colors.

For some reason the link text includes "Chinese" rather than "Japanese."

If you missed seeing it before, look at Simon Beck's snow art.

Saturday, January 25, 2020

STEM

Via NotEvenWrong, an essay on women in STEM suggests possible changes to make it easier for women. Executive summary: sexism exists but isn't the main driver-out-of-women. The virtual impossibility of beginning a family and still keeping up with cutting edge research is the big issue. (FWIW, this effects men too, but nowhere nearly as strongly.)

The essay assumes that STEM means research, and in particular academic research.

Cutting edge research is a form of exploration. That generally requires devoting huge blocks of time and energy--going all out, as it were. In its extreme physical forms, most men can't handle it, very very few women--and no children.

Luckily academic research virtually never involves those kinds of strains (though one of the polar expeditions was to retrieve penguin eggs!), and very few of us die in the effort. But the competition often demands a single-mindedness that shunts much of the rest of life to one side.

I'd guess, from what I've seen over mumble mumble years, that most of the (mostly men) find some kind of satisfactory work-life balance. But it takes a while to figure it out. And marriages tend to come surprisingly late. And it takes a while to learn that incremental effort beyond a certain (individual) point generally doesn't produce much.

The icons are men like Erdos, who lived and breathed mathematics--no family, no home to take care of, just math as long as he could. Dang few of us are Erdos. We can't master everything he did, and what we do master we take longer to learn.

The competition is real--can I put in a few more hours to solve problem X and stand out from the crowd? If the difference between me and the fellow down the hall is that he's a little faster, I can get to the same place he did with just a little more time and concentration, right?

But there's something else at work too, that isn't as easy to solve with sociological cures. In physics and math (I can't speak to engineering), the nature of the discipline is abstraction and problem-solving, and it attracts people who are good at both, and love to do both. See a problem: try to solve it. The problem becomes a fascination, and when you're young you don't know your limits and it eats more and more of your time. And maybe there's a haunting realization that most mathematicians, and maybe physicists, do their best work when young. (I know exceptions)

I think that the nature of the field, and the people attracted to it, build an environment that is not friendly to taking it easy and watching the baby learn to walk. Most of us learn to, but not quickly enough.

Glass

A smidgen of clarification: news stories said a Vesuvius victim's brain turned to glass. Make that a glassy substance: there's no silica in it like window glass. Glass is a very generic term for solids that seem uniform but have no obvious crystal structure. (Sometimes there's microscopic crystal structure.) This one seems to be scorched proteins and fats, and maybe some other stuff that didn't show up in the report.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Immersive

A new immersive performance will allow audience members to experience a plane crash.

Better sign up quickly: "The show will run from 15-23 February throughout the day; tickets £8."

It isn't at an airport.

I once opined that airports should setup a mock-up cabin (at least one size) and give passengers who go through an escape drill a voucher for a few bucks off their next flight.

I'd go for that. And make sure the rest of the family did too. I'm not so sure about a simulated crash, though--if only because the "many worlds" spiel would drive me nuts.

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Barbaric


We'd never use whalebone corsets to force a woman's waist into such an unnatural shape, or bind a girl's feet to make them look like Consort Pan's(*). That was cruel, and kind of creepy.

No, instead of squeezing body parts to be permanently smaller, we inject alien substances to make parts permanently bigger. Surgery is obviously kinder and less barbaric.(**) And more body positive: Positive means plus, right?

No, I lie. We do body reductions too. I forgot about liposuction. But we're not the barbarians they were. We use High Tech™


(*) Lin Yutang suggested that it wasn't just the modern Chinese government decrees that abolished foot-binding, but the discovery that Western high-heel shoes gave the same look and gait without much pain or expense.

(**) Yes, I know that the practice of vanity surgeries makes reconstructive surgery reasonably safe and affordable. Few things are entirely without some good effects.

Commentary

"Some people I know criticize his sermons. They say they're too boring and predictable, although personally, at the end of them I always experience this tremendous sense of awakening."

Monday, January 20, 2020

Where a fireball came from

A fireball over Kyoto in 2017 has been analyzed. Several sites got views of it, and they reconstructed its trajectory and think it came from "near-Earth asteroid 2003 YT1." As we saw with the Ryugu touchdown, asteroids can have lots of loose chunks, and I suppose that, something like comets though not as dramatic, bits can come off when they warm up in the Sun. Bits of me peel off when I spend too much time in Sun too.

It wasn't a huge chunk--they think only a few cm--but it's cool that they were able to track down where it probably came from. "The parent body 2003 YT1 could break up, and those resulting asteroids could hit the Earth in the next 10 million years or so, especially because 2003 YT1 has a dust production mechanism." (Dust production mechanism means stuff comes off it.)

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Social creature

Sometimes I just want to watch the sunset in silent meditation and prayer.

Usually I want to show it to someone else. I can't put a finger on why, but it is better when someone else is grateful for it too.

I've spent enough time traveling and eating alone to say that there's something similar with food. "Eating you can do by yourself; dining demands friends." Whether I'm among the hosts or the guests or just customers, the food and drink are better when I'm with people. Eating isn't just an animal thing, it's a social thing. I wonder if when I eat alone I gain weight from the high-fat things I eat, or lose it because I don't have the same appetite/

Checking around, I find that Dalrymple got there first, writing of extreme cases: "Meals here were solitary, poor, nasty, British, and short."

Very different lyrics...

AVI linked to a Seekers song and I went hunting to see what else they did. Answer: quite a few hits, including one I only heard a time or two: The Carnival is Over, which is based on the tune from Stenka Razin.

Fortunately the Seekers didn't borrow the lyrics. True, water and parting of lovers play a role in both songs, but the situations and cultures differ a bit.

Stenka Razin led a rebellion against the Russian nobility back in 1671.

Glorieta

I was curious what had become of the site(*) and got distracted by a little history that I wasn't familiar with.
He loaded wooden boxes of 24-pound howitzer shells onto two mules and led a small force toward the Confederate camp. When they neared the enemy camp, the men lit the howitzer fuses, slapped the mules, and ran for cover—only to find that the mules had also turned and were loyally following them. The men again tried unsuccessfully to steer the mules into the Confederate camp, finally gave up, and ran for their lives. They were able to get just far enough away to escape injury when the shells—and the mules—exploded. No Confederates were killed in the highly irregular attack, but a number of their own mules stampeded into the darkness and were lost.

...

About this same time, the Confederates launched a cavalry charge against the Union right that included 40 lancers from the 5th Texas, the only recorded instance of lancers being used in the Civil War. The lancers and cavalry encountered a devastating fire that finally broke the charge. In columns of four, banners fluttering and spears leveled, the lancers rode forth against the Coloradans. “Some of them came near enough,” one of the Colorado volunteers wrote, “to be transfixed and lifted from their saddles by bayonets, but the greater part bit the dust before their lances could come in use.” Union Captain Theodore H. Dodd shouted: “They are Texans, give them hell!” His men, who had no love for Texas residents, responded with withering fire. Only three of the 40 lancers got off the field unharmed.

...

All that stood between Sibley and his triumphant march to California were the troops at Fort Union, 60 miles east of Santa Fe.

...

The engagement at Glorieta Pass was so disastrous to Confederate hopes that some historians have labeled it the “Gettysburg of the West.” In its way, it was at least as decisive in its far-reaching consequences. Jefferson Davis’s long-standing dream of vast gold fields, expanded slave territory, and bustling California ports had been crushed in the rocky defile at Glorieta Pass, never to be renewed for the remainder of the war.



(*)answer here

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

John and the woman caught in adultery

The story of the woman caught in adultery John 8:1-11 is not found in some of the very oldest manuscripts, as the Wikipedia article informs us. I gather that textual analysis plays by a specific set of rules. I am not a Greek scholar (I know the alphabet), and don't understand why anyone would claim that it was "certainly not part of the original text of St. John's Gospel." The style seems consistent with the rest of John, but that may of course be due to the translators. And it seems to match Jesus' readiness to forgive people. And since it is cited in the mid-200's (see the wikipedia article), the story plainly is older than that.

I've had a sneaking suspicion that since John lived as long as he did, he had the opportunity to issue a "revised" version--"I forgot to include this bit."

But just to see:

The episode is only about 230 words in English. I wondered how much space that would take up in Greek.

Voila Papyrus 66, an extremely old codex. The second image on the wikipedia page displays "The first page of the papyrus, showing John 1:1-13 and the opening words of v.14" That's about 210 words in English. So the missing section would be about 1 face of a page of papyrus. That sounds like a nice easy transcription error: "It's too dark. Let me finish this page and start again tomorrow."

Monday, January 13, 2020

Oddity

For some reason shoveling 2" of snow off the sidewalk leaves me a little more tired than shoveling 5" did when we first moved here.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Dice game followup

In the post on a dice game, I didn't explain the meaning of the graphs.

A player has about a 50/50 chance of winning some points in her turn. That's in a good range--not too rare, not too often. But one attractive feature of the "losing turn" is that it isn't a one-and-done. There's a little tension: "I missed once, will I miss the second time too?" It makes the game a trifle slower, but the dramatic advantage should compensate for that. Clever.

Getting multiple points in a turn is common enough to make that something to hope for--and even getting a winning throw isn't so rare that the women wouldn't see it every few games. This also helps cultivate a little drama.

The more biased the chips are, the more likely early players are to win, but the effect isn't that dramatic for reasonable estimates of unfairness. If the chips are dramatically unfair, players will notice and quit using them. So it seems to be a pretty fair game.

The prize (some yard goods that she would give to a man in exchange for something of equal value) was something easily provided by the other women, something the man had to supply, and an exchange which emphasized the reciprocal obligations of men and women in the tribe. And--probably now and then an unmarried winner used it for signaling interest.

I'll work up some estimates for how many women can play the game before it gets too unfair. If there are 1000 women playing, the winner will appear in the first few hundred and the last ones will pretty much never get a turn. If you've only got 2 players, the odds are close to even for them both.


UPDATE:

Actually, this is a terrible game. Below see the table for the number of women playing and the relative odds of the last woman in the group to those of the first woman in the group. If you can randomly pick who goes first, who second, and so on, you're OK, but otherwise the first players have quite an advantage.

# playerswin rate ratio of last to first
20.86
30.78
40.73
50.66
60.62
70.58
80.53

UPDATE:

The easiest way to fix this is to skip the "first past the post" rule, and allow points to keep accumulating. The first past woman with 10 or more points marks the final round, which continues until all are done; then the woman with the highest number of points wins--with tie-breaker rounds as needed. Of course, that's a different game then, but probably similar enough.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Attacks on faith

I was reading about the Hussites the other day, and it struck me that one of the things that seems to have driven the religious conflict was "trying to take the faith away from us."

Never mind the establishment--they were the "money-changers in the temple", and the Hussites threatened their extortion scheme. Of course they were violently angry.

But a lot of ordinary folk became deeply involved.

On the one hand, the Hussites were taking away the rituals and traditions that were still central to many people's lives. Not all the priests were money-hungry, and people could see that.

On the other hand, the rapacious corruption of the religious leaders and of the framework they built was taking the soul out of the religion, and many people felt that loss deeply. They wanted the soul back. And the leaders were making innovative changes: the congregants were now officially banned from receiving the Eucharist in both kinds. So the "rebels" also were standing up for tradition: both the tradition of the spirit of the faith and of the letter of the practice.

It may not surprise the reader to find that my sympathies lie with the losers here. But I think I understand the hostility to them.

I may wait a long time for the canonization of St Huss or St Wycliffe. Unfortunately.

Cleanliness and God

Maybe I'm all wet, but it seemed to me as though ancient Hebrew religion was designed to emphasize how holy and separate God was.  God wasn't everywhere like the pantheists wanted, nor multiple as the polytheists and animists hoped, nor someone you could pick up and hide under the saddle-blankets.  Pictures were right out--they couldn't get close to God that way either.

He was separate.  You couldn't get near without being clean yourself, and even the priests couldn't get very close--and they had to be careful not to "put holiness on the people" afterwards!

Yet they were assured that He was their God and they were His people--even if they could not approach Him.

Once they got that lesson down solid, Jesus taught the rest of the lesson. I can't remember who said that if Jesus had come to the Hindus they'd have showered Him with flowers--and not understood Him at all.  They hadn't gotten lesson 1 yet.

Relative risks

One of Althouse' commenters, "The Crack Emcee, wrote "Black people don't go anywhere because we don't feel free to roam, simple as that."

I wondered at that. Under what circumstances would that be reasonable? I gather he is a composer and DJ, both of whom run into a different section of society than I see, but I'm not sure that skews the environments that much.

My naive incredulity arises because, statistically, in the USA, a random black man is an order of magnitude more likely to commit violent crimes than a random white man.

But when he goes out into the rest of the US, the white men abound by an order of magnitude more than the black, so the likelihood of running into a violent white predator is roughly the same as of running into a black one.

There's something else that skews the numbers even more. Within his own culture, he can probably spot the "tells" for people he wants to avoid better than he can in the "white culture," especially in rural areas with which he seems to have little experience.

The folks I hang around with are not a representative sample of Americans. I can probably find white druggies and "rowdy" drinkers without too much effort, but I avoid them. Sometimes the signals are obvious.

If he is doing the same, he probably is at greater risk from white folks whom he can't read than from the black folks he can.

"Better the devil you know than the devil you don't."

FWIW, yesterday the police chased down a fellow who shot at his girlfriend in the house across the street from us. (nobody hurt) I had not made an effort to get to know the man.

Thursday, January 09, 2020

Moral truncation

On thinking about it more, moral truncation is much more generic than politics. You can easily see it anywhere. I can hardly do better than Uncle Screwtape in showing how it develops.
Do what you will, there is going to be some benevolence, as well as some malice, in your patient’s soul. The great thing is to direct the malice to his immediate neighbours whom he meets every day and to thrust his benevolence out to the remote circumference, to people he does not know. The malice thus becomes wholly real and the benevolence largely imaginary. There is no good at all in inflaming his hatred of Germans if, at the same time, a pernicious habit of charity is growing up between him and his mother, his employer, and the man he meets in the train. Think of your man as a series of concentric circles, his will being the innermost, his intellect coming next, and finally his fantasy. You can hardly hope, at once, to exclude from all the circles everything that smells of the Enemy: but you must keep on shoving all the virtues outward till they are finally located in the circle of fantasy, and all the desirable qualities inward into the Will. It is only in so far as they reach the will and are there embodied in habits that the virtues are really fatal to us. (I don’t, of course, mean what the patient mistakes for his will, the conscious fume and fret of resolutions and clenched teeth, but the real centre, what the Enemy calls the Heart.) All sorts of virtues painted in the fantasy or approved by the intellect or even, in some measure, loved and admired, will not keep a man from our Father’s house: indeed they may make him more amusing when he gets there,

Your affectionate uncle Screwtape

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt

The format is a bit unusual: much of the book is autobiographical, telling the story of how he evolved his conclusions. He got there by observations, measurements, and actually living in India rather than just reading Western interpretations of it. And then iterating on his results.

Probably everybody knows his conclusions: moral choices are based on 6 moral foundations: the spectra of

  • Care/Harm
  • Fairness/Cheating
  • Loyalty/Betrayal
  • Authority/Subversion
  • Sanctity/Degradation
  • Liberty/Oppression

It turns out that “conservatives” are able to describe “liberal” positions more accurately than the reverse, and he interprets that within his framework as further evidence that his fellow liberals use only 2 ½ of the 6 moral foundations: they value Care, Liberty, and to a lesser extent Fairness overwhelmingly more than Authority or Sanctity or Loyalty. Conservatives were more evenly spread. Each group regards itself as obviously moral.

In the third part of his book (motto: “We are 90% chimp and 10% bee”) he examines what bonds people. We are social creatures, and have developed many rituals for bonding ourselves together—and they work very well, whether they are in psyching up for a football game or drilling in boot camp. He notices that the main question of leadership is not “Why does someone want to be a leader?” but “Why does anybody follow?”

He takes great care to make sure this all fits into an evolutionary model—though his work is nowhere nearly as forced as some of the just-so “selfish gene” stories to explain altruism. His model of the “super-organism” works better.

His first model of human behavior is the “elephant and rider”: the first and generally final reaction is not driven by conscious thought; it is usually justified ex post facto.

And yet, at some level that elephant is driven by thought.

Haidt reminds us of the twin studies that show that separated-at-birth twins often wind up with quite similar tastes and politics—and even similar spouses. In our culture, that taste in politics is guided into the liberal or conservative framework (or libertarian, which he discusses and I will ignore). In the liberal case, the child’s inchoate preferences wind up with either the 2 ½ moral foundations and in the conservative the 6.

But. When else in history have people, born with the same innate preference suites, divided into these particular kinds of social/political groups?

History is full of divisions, but until the growth of the WEIRD culture, has any subgroup shown this particular kind of moral truncation? I don’t believe we’ve evolved a new kind of human so fast—and in any event the modern ultra liberal attitudes have no Darwinian future (he also notices this). If people are the same, the difference comes from the social environment.

I have to conclude that the division isn’t entirely intrinsic to people’s preferences. We have to model what’s happening as a moral re-training that magnifies one set of moral foundations and lets the rest wither. How? Exercises of moral imagination, selecting one set of narratives over others, defining a new group identity in terms of a specific moral matrix—That sounds a bit like a religion, doesn’t it? And Rodney Stark showed that most religious conversions came about through a preponderance of friends from the new cult. One writer recently complained that Howard Stern had turned wimpy and PC in his old age {never heard him myself}--I wonder what Howards friends are like.

WEIRD can be rich, but it tends to be barren. I’m told the Roman Empire cities tended to be population sinks. People could get relatively rich, but tended to die off in plagues and whatnot, so only a continuous stream of aspirants from the countryside kept them going.

You can think of comparable, though not identical, instances of moral truncation in the past: the fiery hands of Moloch--“Caring” was not exactly the chief moral pillar in those lands. “If he had different gods, he would have been a different man.”

So I think the elephant, at least in part, can be shaped. Perhaps not so much by the “rider”, since it takes a lot of self-awareness to know what effect the sea you swim in has on you (*), but by the society you interact with, and the subgroups you gravitate toward.

Qui bono from moral truncation? The Prince of this world, of course, but in our WEIRD land, the humans benefiting are the ones with the nicest places in the economic machine. When not tied down by family/community bonding, workers are conveniently fungible. As I estimated some time back, adult consumers consume more than children do. (Does that word “consumer” make your skin crawl? What a world of objectification is in it.) There’s lots of money to be made from anomie.

It is an interesting story, and his framework seems to have a great deal of descriptive power--possibly even predictive, if one can "shape the way the elephant grows."

AVI takes issue with "moral truncation", judging that liberals use all 6, but in ways that weren't captured by the questions. I think this makes calling our partisan divide a religious divide a more useful model. You judge:

An example of a moral question having to do with sanctity/degradation was: “A man buys a chicken at the butcher shop. On a whim, he has sex with it, and then cooks it and eats it.” People divided (in split seconds) into 2 groups: those who were disgusted and then came up with more or less relevant explanations of why the act was wrong, and those who were not and explained their position as “it Harms no-one.”

An example from AVI's approach might have been "A man builds a dam across a stream to make a millpond."


(*) Yes, I mix metaphors sometimes.

Sunday, January 05, 2020

Virtual Strike

"Atlanta Police Chief Erika Shields announced on Friday that, effective immediately, the Atlanta Police Department has a “no-chase policy.” ... In the email, the chief pointed to the failure of the judicial system as a key reason for changing the department’s chase policy"
“I don’t want to see us cost someone their life in pursuit of an auto theft person or a burglar when the court’s not even going to hold them accountable,” Chief Shields said. “I mean how can we justify that? And I think we are better than that.”

I gather that Georgia forbids collective bargaining by police. Strikes are off the table. On the other hand, this kind of go-slow sounds so wonderfully caring: "It's for the innocent bystanders." It's going to be hard to call it a strike.

Does anybody have any statistics to show why we should disbelieve Shields' claim about the Atlanta court system?

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Women's dice game

Menominee women's dice game as seen in the Milwaukee Public Museum.
Six of the dice were thin circular disks; one was carved in the form of a turtle, and one represented a horse's head. They were formerly made of buffalo rib, but horse ribs were common in later times. One surface of each die was colored blue or sometimes red, and the other was left white. The bowl was held with both hands and the dice were shaken to the far side of the bowl. Then the bowl was given one flip and set on the floor and the score was counted, as follows:
  • All of similar color except 2: 1 point
  • All of similar color except 1: 3 points
  • All of similar color except turtle: 5 points
  • All of similar color except horse: 10 points
  • All of similar color: 8 points
  • All of similar color except turtle and horse: 10 points

The scoring varied according to each tribe, and each woman kept her own score using beans in front of her. Each woman shook until she missed twice and then passed the bowl in clockwise rotation. The first to score ten points won the game, and her prize-a piece of yard goods-was given to one of the men spectators, who in turn was obliged to reciprocate with a gift of equal value in the future.

OK, obviously the lady can score more than 10 points in a turn, though that won't happen often. If the chips (not really dice) were fair, the probability of red or white would be 0.5, but it might vary a bit. If they were fair, how much would a woman score in a turn--on the average? I made a stupid typo in my program, and I wanted to use the exercise to learn some python plotting I wasn't familiar with, so this took longer than it should have, but for your interest:

And if you want to know how things change if the chips aren't fair (systematically), that's here:

The award scheme is clever. The woman probably didn't need any "yard goods" herself--that was the sort of thing women made anyway. But she got to make a forced exchange with a man for something the men provided.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Grinding

We were looking at grain grinding stones in the AmerIndian section of the Milwaukee museum. Not a sign of a rotary mill in sight. Was it obvious why?

The go-to place to look for inventions is usually China. The Mo was developed around 250BC.
That's pretty recent.

However, it looks like Greeks in about 400's BC invented a hopper mill (grain fed through a hole in the top stone), and somebody in Spain probably invented a rotary mill about the same time. The diffusion must have gone the other way this time.

This source suggests that the requirements of olive processing demanded innovations in milling that some clever folks transferred to grinding grain.

The rotary quern and rotary mill aren't very suitable for processing the typical crops of African rainforests, so is isn't surprising not to find them there. And since they were invented so recently they'd have to have been re-invented in the Americas--but they weren't. The labor needed to make one wouldn't seem likely to pay off quickly unless more than just a couple of families were grinding their grain with it. Several AmerIndian cultures had densely populated farming sites, so they could certainly have used it if they had it.


As a side note, I was curious about where North American Indians got their beans: ""These four cultivated species have similar origins in the Americas, tepary found in NW Mexico and southern Arizona, scarlet runner and year-beans found in Southern Mexico and the highlands of Guatemala and the lima bean mirrors the common bean in that it has two centers of origin: one in Andean region and the other in Middle America." I knew about the Andes and Central America, but not New Mexico. Obviously the seeds went all over the place--I have no idea how quickly, though. I wonder if anybody has been able to trace that spread.

Witch hunting

Famously, there are a number of tribes in the Congo area among which there is no such thing as "death by natural causes." If an adult dies unexpectedly, a witch is to blame.

The authorities look for and punish the witch. There are some usual suspects, of course: albinos, twins, people who inspire envy... But the blame can fall on anyone.

We'd never do anything like that here.

Here, if someone has had unhappy luck in life and can properly define their intersectionality, the bad luck is someone else's fault, and the self-appointed authorities look for and punish the guilty party and group. There are some usual suspects, of course: "patriarchs", "capitalists", "cis-normatives," etc, but anyone who has at any time failed to abide by the party's rules from the past, present, or future, is vulnerable.

These things are nothing like each other, of course.

Wednesday, January 01, 2020

What is your vision for 2020?

I need to distinguish more clearly between my plans and God's plans.